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Rain Spreading Southeast

Added : 5 hours ago

A real day of two halves for some areas of the country today as an active frontal system sweeps down from the Northwest. We start Sunday with rain across much of Western Scotland and Northern Ireland. A cold and frosty start the further East you are with some mist/fog patches across parts of Southeast and Eastern England to greet in this happy Sunday.

In between these two things and it's a cold, but rather cloudy start with hazy weak sunshine thanks to high cloud which is running in ahead of the weather system. Later today and the front wastes no time marching Southeast and will arrive in the Midlands during the early part of the afternoon and reaching Eastern and Southeastern areas later this afternoon and into this evening.

Following on behind is a change to somewhat milder weather as air comes in from around an incoming ridge of high pressure. At this time of year milder weather will tend to be accompanied by cloud and drizzle across Western facing coastal areas.

Temperatures not too bad today for many of us. A chilly start for Eastern areas and here we will struggle towards 4-5c later this afternoon, but temperatures rising into double figures across Ireland and Southwest England as that milder air seeps in from the West. Later this evening and the milder air continues to head in from the Atlantic, although under clearing skies for parts of Northwest England and Scotland we will once see a light air frost return overnight.

METEOROLOGIST : MARSH

Airmass ► Radar ► Weather Scanner ► 



Milder From The West Next Week

Added : Friday at 16:15

Well.... This is one of those sort of articles where we take a look at the latest weather output and then try to concoct a headline and then spend the rest of the article trying to explain that it's not quite as clear cut as one might imagine.

So, let the backtracking commence. In fact, the process starts later this weekend after a rather brief cold shot of air from the North. As the low pressure which brings the colder air heads away to the East later on Saturday and into Sunday we find high pressure building to the South of the UK. For snow lovers this is not a particularly good location as it allows the European High to build to the South of us. No doubt some of you will say "Oh no! Not the European High!" and others might think "Err OK, so the European High... What's the big deal? We voted to leave anyway didn't we?"

The European High is a feature which is rather common to the Southeast of the UK. It usually allows milder air to approach from the Southwest, but in any clear skies overnight we can expect fog, frost and other rather benign weather to develop, in particular for Southern areas.

The good news though is that this is a well defined weather singularity and tends to affect the UK for many years around the middle to end of December before more unsettled weather heads in around Christmas bringing rain and later colder weather as winds swing around to the Northwest.

The bad news is that the European high is a difficult old feature to remove. It's one of those things which usually over stays its welcome, a bit like the in-laws staying over Christmas when you say to them on the 27th "I thought you guys were heading off today?" Only for them to reply "We thought we would stay until the New Year..."

The face you pull when you read that is very similar to the one meteorologists pull when you mention the European High.

METEOROLOGIST : STAYINGFORANOTHERWEEK

GFS ► 


Rapid Refresh Model Available

Added : Tuesday at 10:25

"The Americans have got one, so why haven't we?" came the very well made point at Metcheck Towers the other week. You see, there are some fantastic weather models which are available these days on t'internet, but the one thing which the UK has always lacked is a high resolution, rapid refresh model.

This is a model which is run every single hour of the day and takes in the latest radar, satellite and observations coming in from around the world. After all, there is nothing more annoying than looking at a forecast chart from a model and realising that it can't even seem to get the weather right at the moment regardless of a few hours ahead.

The HRRR model shows the forecast radar images, hourly snowfall forecast as well as cloud cover and the risk of seeing lightning strikes out to 36 hours ahead. The model is run hourly and the new images come through at around 35 minutes past each hour. At 3am, 6am, 9am, midday, 3pm, 6pm, 9pm and midnight the model is run out to 36 hours ahead, but all the other times it runs out to 21 hours ahead.

So "The Americans have got one, so why haven't we?"... Well, funny you should ask that, as now we have. The Metcheck HRRR model is now available online.

METEOROLOGIST : MARSH

HRRR ► 


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