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Latest NHC Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 705 AM EST Thu Jan 18 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Atlantic Gale Warning...

The low pressure currently located east of the N Carolina's coast will continue to move eastward into the western Atlantic Ocean while deepening. Gale-force winds associated with this low pressure system have developed north of 30N within 180 nm west of a cold front that extends from the low to 30N73W SW across the northern Bahamas to the Florida Straits and then into the Yucatan Peninsula. Winds will diminish below gale force tonight. However, near gale-force winds will prevail through early Friday morning as the front weaken southeast of the Bahamas. Please read the latest NHC High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, and the latest NHC Offshore Waters Forecast, MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean near 06N11W and continues to 02N16W. The ITCZ begins near 06N16W and continues along 0N30W to 02N40W to 03N51W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 02N to 07N between 07W and 15W and from 0N to 05N between 28W and 48W.

...DISCUSSION...

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge has established across the Gulf in the wake of the cold front that currently extends across the SW N Atlc to the Florida Straits to the eastern Yucatan Peninsula. Scatterometer data depicts fresh to locally strong northerly winds across the basin. Winds will slightly weaken as the pressure gradient relaxes across the basin during the next 24 hours. Fresh to locally strong southerly flow will set-up again across the western Gulf and persist early this weekend ahead on the next cold front forecast to reach the Texas coast Sunday night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The remnants of a stationary front were analyzed as a surface trough that extends across the western Caribbean from 19N85W to 12N82W. Abundant cloudiness with embedded showers and thunderstorms are noted west of 80W with this trough affecting the Cayman Islands and western Cuba. Patches of low-level moisture carried by the trade wind flow are seen across the remainder of the Caribbean Sea inducing showers. Moderate to fresh northeast winds are seen in the lee of Cuba, and within about 60 nm of the coast of Nicaragua. Fresh to strong winds are near the coast of Colombia. The cold front currently moving across the Gulf of Mexico will reach the northwest Caribbean this morning, then extend from central Cuba to Honduras by tonight. Fresh to strong winds and widespread showers are expected behind the front. Strong trade winds will pulse near the coast of Colombia coast on Friday night and then expand across much of the central Caribbean over the weekend as high pressure builds north of the area.

...HISPANIOLA...

Relatively dry weather with partly cloudy skies and isolated showers will prevail for the next day or so over the island due to the influence of a ridge. Computer models show an increasing of moisture across Hispaniola toward the end of the work-week as a cold front approaches from the west. Fresh northeast winds are expected across the Windward Passage today through Saturday night as high pressure builds across the western Atlantic in the wake of the above mentioned front.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A strong cold front is moving across the west Atlantic from 31N77W to 28N80W. See the Special Features section for more details about this front and the Gale Warning in effect. To the east, a forming cold front has developed extending from a 1014 mb surface low near 34N73W to 24N75W. Scattered showers are noted in the vicinity of these features mainly west of 70W. A surface trough extends from 30N65W to 25N65W with minimal convection at this time. An upper-level low is reflected at the surface as a trough that extends from 31N50W to a 1021 mb low near 28N47W to 21N43W. Scattered moderate convection is noted north of 25N between 36W- 46W. The strong high pressure near Azores dominates most of the east and central Atlantic, and will move little through this weekend.

For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine



Updated : 18/01/2018 16:59:59

2018 Storm Names

Storm Storm Name Storm Status
1
Alberto Allocated
2
Beryl Allocated
3
Chris Allocated
4
Debby Allocated
5
Ernesto Allocated
6
Florence Allocated
7
Gordon Allocated
8
Helene Allocated
9
Isaac Allocated
10
Joyce Allocated
11
Kirk Allocated
12
Leslie Allocated
13
Michael Allocated
14
Nadine Allocated
15
Oscar Allocated
16
Patty Allocated
17
Rafael Allocated
18
Sara Allocated
19
Tony Allocated
20
Valerie Allocated
21
William Allocated
22
Alpha Allocated
23
Beta Allocated
24
Gamma Allocated
25
Delta Allocated
26
Epsilon Allocated
27
Zeta Allocated


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