Weekly Storm Forecast - From 26 July 2018
UK & IrelandFull Charts For UK & Ireland
No surprise that the GFS is going for a moderate/high risk of thunderstorms across parts of Eastern and Northeast England tomorrow.
The GFS also progs a moderate risk of tornado/funnel clouds across parts of Lincolnshire tomorrow afternoon, but we will come back to that in a bit :-
On Friday, we have a cold front coming in from the West with a negative tilt along the Southern flank. This trough allows upper cool air to flow in at height which will destabilise the cap across parts of Southeast and Eastern England throughout the course of the morning.
Another lobe of vorticity is being progged by AROME and EURO4 across parts of Northeast England on Friday morning.
EURO4 goes it alone with a plume of very moist low/mid level air running into parts of the Northern Pennines and Southern Uplands on Friday afternoon. If the EURO4 is correct then risks of torrential thunderstorms with frequent lightning, gusty winds and moderate hail.
The GFS and GEM continue to prog impressive lapse rates across parts of Northeast England and we will stick with this unless 6z soundings tomorrow tell us otherwise.
Impressive deep level shear and helicity values from surface to 700mb show the potential for tornadoes and/or funnel clouds for some of the most organised systems. Once again, the GFS pulls the risk across Northeast England, perhaps adding in sea breeze which explains the location.
Needless to say, tomorrow has a moderate risk of heavy and rapidly developing thunderstorms with strong wind gusts, lightning and hail. Interests in marine, aviation and outdoor activities should monitor the weather forecasts regularly over the next 24 hours.
This discussion will be updated on Friday morning when we have the morning soundings.
METEOROLOGIST : MARSH |