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Metcheck Forecast Team Article Comments (1)

Old Wives Summer Starts

Not quite sure why this is called Old Wives Summer and we will probably get in trouble if we start guessing why (Ed. Why do I feel you will try?). Anyways, back to the weather and high pressure is now starting to build in to dominate the weather for the rest of this week. Today we have a slight fly in the ointment in the form of a weak frontal system which will march South-east during the course of the day. The frontal system is actually the cold front of ex-Hurricane Cristobal which is currently residing across Iceland. Not very interesting is it?

For the vast majority of the British Isles it will be blue skies and sunshine after a misty start (across North-west England) with temperatures up to the dizzy heights of 20 or 21c across the Midlands and North-east England. Overnight the clear skies will allow temperatures to drop back to single figures for many areas (ahh maybe that's an old wives thing? Warm days and cool nights?). Maybe some sharp showers developing later this evening to the West of London and also around the Wash in Lincolnshire, but we're putting lipstick on a pig to be honest.

As for the rest of the week, the progression of high pressure from the Atlantic to Siberia will continue. This does mean that although high pressure will be the dominant force, the wind direction, cloud amount etc will vary quite a bit during the course of the week as the centre of the high drifts and becomes re-established elsewhere.

Old wives love it apparently... as do pigs wearing lipstick. A co-incidence... surely?

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Metcheck Forecast Team Article Comments (3)

It's Stratospheric Baby!

Yeah, the cow's back! Right, looking more than likely now as though high pressure will build across the UK for the first half of September. However, meteorologically speaking there are plenty of other changes afoot which are worth taking a look at.

September is usually a month of two contrasts. You know the whole Lion/Lamb thing? Well, it's pretty much a similar kind of event with September. The difference is that September, like March, sees the Northern Hemisphere start to take on a wider contrasts in air masses. The North Pole starts to cool as daylight finishes for the Summer, whilst the equator is still as warm as ever.

There are also some strange goings on in the upper stratosphere over the North Pole too as the Polar Vortex starts to become established. As a result we will start to see the jet stream across the Atlantic start to intensify during the next two or three weeks. So, no wet and wild weather just yet, but think of it as the Atlantic just popping down the gym for a fortnight and will be working out. Get ready to see it flex those new muscles in a couple of weeks or so....

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Metcheck Forecast Team Article Comments (2)

Careful Chart Watchers!

Worth being a little cautious with model output at the moment with regards to following things like "How long will the high pressure last?", "It will breakdown by the weekend (courtesy of BBC Breakfast)" etc.

The overarching factor of the weather this week will be a strong upper ridge which will serve to promote any high pressure areas which reside beneath it. However, as we enter the first day of meteorological Autumn, so the Atlantic starts to throw in some potent disturbances in the form of ex-hurricanes and areas of tropical weather which serve to confuse the models.

These small, but potent systems have huge knock on effects with regards to the development of highs, their positioning and intensity. If one model run develops a tropical system then in turn our high pressure areas will be "pumped up" to the North of them. But if they don't develop them then it opens the window to areas of low pressure from the North-west.

So, any forecaster who confidently tells you what the weather will be like next week is worth grabbing and asking if you can get the numbers for Saturdays lotto draw too!

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