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26
Oct
06:00


Metcheck Forecast Team Article Comments (0)

Western Scotland Soaking

  • Western Scotland Soaking

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A very wet spell of weather will affect much of western Scotland during the next couple of days as persistent and heavy rain affects the region with some areas likely to see up to 8 inches of rain bringing the risk of localised flooding before the rain eventually ease by Tuesday. Elsewhere it's a quieter picture with mild and cloudy south-westerly winds dominating in many regions

To start with this morning there is a lot of cloud around across much of the country with some patchy light rain and drizzle around, especially towards western parts of England and Wales. However across Northern Ireland, northern and western Scotland there is more in the way of rain to be found, some of this rain on the heavy side, and as we go through the day that rain will really set in across western Scotland, turning heavy and persistent as well as being accompanied by strong to gale force south-westerly winds gusting up to 60mph at times, making for a thoroughly miserable day here. Elsewhere it will be much drier apart from the odd shower, and whilst there will be a lot of cloud around for much of the time, a few brighter spells will develop, these most likely towards the east sheltered from the brisk south-westerly wind. Temperatures will range from 13C to 15C in the north and west and 14C to 16C across southern and eastern parts of England.

It will remain very wet and windy tonight across the west of Scotland with heavy rain and south-westerly gales continuing for much of the night. Elsewhere it will be a mostly dry night apart from the odd drizzly outbreak, but with the cloud cover it will be a mild night as temperatures only fall back to lows of 10C to 12C. Looking ahead to tomorrow and for many parts it will be another rather cloudy day with some brighter spells developing and the odd shower around, but western and north-western Scotland will remain very wet and windy for much of the day. It will however become very mild across the brighter parts of England and Wales with maximums into the high teens.

***REMINDER: Clocks went back 1 hour last night at 2am as we moved back into GMT***

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24
Oct
11:24


Metcheck Forecast Team Article Comments (6)

A Winter Of Winters


During the next couple of weeks the forecasters here at Metcheck will take a look at what kind of winter we expect across the UK this year. No doubt you have seen all the newspaper articles regarding the potential of the coldest winter for 100 years and certain longer range models are also hinting at a blocked pattern for the coming season.

We talked a couple of months ago about the Pacific warming and the increased chance of an Atlantic blocking pattern. Not much has changed to be honest and we will cover this in more detail when we release the winter forecast.

At the moment though we are in a period where colder than average winters are more likely than milder than average due to sunspot activity and the 11 year solar cycle. It is not inconceivable for us to have a winter like 1947 or 1963 again, it's not inconceivable for us to have a winter even colder either. One concern is that our infrastructure in the country just isn't geared up to deal with something like this. Our buying, working, living lifestyle is a far cry from what it was during the 1940's and 1960's and due to years of milder winters the shock to the system would be that much greater.

Now, obviously we are not expecting an event like that this year at the moment. But it's worth remembering that we are long overdue for a severe winter in this country and nature has a funny way of always remembering her debts. Will you be telling your grandchildren that you lived through and remember the winter of 2014/15? It's not inconceivable....

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22
Oct
11:49


Metcheck Forecast Team Article Comments (6)

Meridional Pattern Developing


Been some interesting developments in the weather models in the past couple of days with some strange weather scenarios across Europe as we move into November.

Obviously the main thing to understand is that the models are never perfect and we never take any one run as gospel. But, saying that, the models are now hinting at a pattern change which could well bring some interesting weather in the near future.

The pattern developing is a meridional one. The opposite of meridional is zonal, which is the endless areas of low pressure rattling in off the Atlantic. Meridional is where the jet stream starts to meander further from North to South and allows the amplification of areas of high pressure and low pressure to become that much greater.

When this happens there is always the risk of dragging in air from much further afield. Sometimes this can be cold (if from the North or East) or warm (if from the South) at this time of year. There is no any one signal telling us what the outcome is likely to be just yet. It's a bit like getting home and seeing a brown envelope on the floor.... is it a tax bill or a tax rebate?

One thing is for sure and that is the patterns are about to shift and give us a glimpse of what we can expect for the coming season. Worth keeping a close eye on the GFS charts over the next few days.

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