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Metcheck Forecast Team Article Comments (3)

A Winter Of Winters

  • A Winter Of Winters

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During the next couple of weeks the forecasters here at Metcheck will take a look at what kind of winter we expect across the UK this year. No doubt you have seen all the newspaper articles regarding the potential of the coldest winter for 100 years and certain longer range models are also hinting at a blocked pattern for the coming season.

We talked a couple of months ago about the Pacific warming and the increased chance of an Atlantic blocking pattern. Not much has changed to be honest and we will cover this in more detail when we release the winter forecast.

At the moment though we are in a period where colder than average winters are more likely than milder than average due to sunspot activity and the 11 year solar cycle. It is not inconceivable for us to have a winter like 1947 or 1963 again, it's not inconceivable for us to have a winter even colder either. One concern is that our infrastructure in the country just isn't geared up to deal with something like this. Our buying, working, living lifestyle is a far cry from what it was during the 1940's and 1960's and due to years of milder winters the shock to the system would be that much greater.

Now, obviously we are not expecting an event like that this year at the moment. But it's worth remembering that we are long overdue for a severe winter in this country and nature has a funny way of always remembering her debts. Will you be telling your grandchildren that you lived through and remember the winter of 2014/15? It's not inconceivable....

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Metcheck Forecast Team Article Comments (0)

Rain In South

Weather fronts across England and Wales today will bring some rain to many areas today before they clear south-eastwards to leave a reasonable weekend for many. However towards the northwest it will always remain rather more unsettled and windy with showers or longer spells of rain at times and here we are expecting rainfall totals to really build up during the next few days, but especially as we go into the first part of next week when a slow-moving frontal system looks set to plague the region.

Back to this morning and it's dawning overcast and cloudy across many parts of England and Wales with some rain and drizzle around, some of this rain on the heavy side in places. Meanwhile across much of Scotland and Northern Ireland it will be a brighter start to the day with some sunny spells around but also a number of blustery showers around northern and western coasts. The cloud and rain over England and Wales will slowly move further south-eastwards today, allowing brighter skies to move into much of Wales and northern England this afternoon, but towards south-eastern parts it will remain dull and damp for much of the day. Scotland and Northern Ireland will see a day of sunny spells and showers, the best of the sunshine in eastern districts with most of the showers in the north and west where they will be heavy and blustery at times. Winds will generally be moderate to fresh south-westerlies, but gales are likely in the northwest, whilst temperatures will range from 12C to 14C in the north and west and 14C to 16C across southern and eastern parts of England.

The cloud and rain will finally clear the southeast of England tonight to leave many areas with a dry and cool night as clear spells develop and temperatures fall back to lows of 6C to 8C. However showers will continue around northern and western coasts, these turning persistent and heavy over western Scotland where it will be very windy with coastal gales. Looking ahead to tomorrow and for many parts of England and Wales it will be a bright day with some sunny spells and a few showers, these mainly in the west, whilst for Scotland and Northern Ireland there will be more in the way of showers around, these heaviest and most persistent over western Scotland once again.

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Metcheck Forecast Team Article Comments (6)

Meridional Pattern Developing

Been some interesting developments in the weather models in the past couple of days with some strange weather scenarios across Europe as we move into November.

Obviously the main thing to understand is that the models are never perfect and we never take any one run as gospel. But, saying that, the models are now hinting at a pattern change which could well bring some interesting weather in the near future.

The pattern developing is a meridional one. The opposite of meridional is zonal, which is the endless areas of low pressure rattling in off the Atlantic. Meridional is where the jet stream starts to meander further from North to South and allows the amplification of areas of high pressure and low pressure to become that much greater.

When this happens there is always the risk of dragging in air from much further afield. Sometimes this can be cold (if from the North or East) or warm (if from the South) at this time of year. There is no any one signal telling us what the outcome is likely to be just yet. It's a bit like getting home and seeing a brown envelope on the floor.... is it a tax bill or a tax rebate?

One thing is for sure and that is the patterns are about to shift and give us a glimpse of what we can expect for the coming season. Worth keeping a close eye on the GFS charts over the next few days.

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