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Rain Moving Slowly Northeast

The stand-off between low pressure over the Atlantic and high pressure to the northeast will continue today with a weather front slowly and erratically pushing north-eastwards across the UK bringing a band of rain with it. Many northern and eastern areas may well escape with a mainly dry day today with the rain not arriving until tonight or tomorrow.

Many areas are starting off rather cloudy and misty this morning with a scattering of showers around although many areas are dry. Thicker cloud and outbreaks of rain are coming into southwest England, Wales and Northern Ireland though with some heavy bursts in places. As we go through today that rain band will only very slowly edge a little further northeast and will likely intensify somewhat bringing a wet afternoon to much of Wales, parts of southwest England and up to the Isle of Man. Sunshine and showers will follow into Cornwall and Northern Ireland whilst to the north and east of the rain band it will turn into a bright day with some sunny spells and a few sharp showers breaking out. Temperatures will be close to or just above normal for many, feeling warm in the brighter east.

That band of rain moves further north-eastwards tonight to reach all but the far northeast by dawn on Thursday. Drier conditions will follow on into the southwest with many areas turning misty. Looking ahead to tomorrow and many northern and eastern regions will be rather cloudy and damp for much of the day but elsewhere a mixture of sunny spells and scattered showers can be expected, some of the showers turning heavy and thundery in places by the afternoon.

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Metcheck Forecast Team Article Comments (0)

Quendolin Creates North/South Split

Low Quendolin will continue to affect Southern areas of the UK throughout Easter Sunday and into Eastern Monday. It's rather interesting how weather models have struggled with the intensity, trajectory and movement of Quendolin over the last 48 hours.

As you're probably aware the usual trajectory of weather systems over the UK is from the South-west to the North-east. Quendolin has pushed in from the East and is now heading West. Obviously Quendolin will continue to behave in a way which is totally influenced by the basic rules of physics. However, the reason many models have struggled with Quendolin is purely because the development, movement and intensity of the system has been a little strange for our shores.

At the moment the weather models are still in slight disagreement with the intensity of the main frontal band which heads North during today and into tomorrow. There is also some conflicting views with regards to the development of home grown storms during Easter Monday. Certainly the potential for some beefy showers across Southern, South-eastern and West England during Easter Monday afternoon. This risk then spreads into South Wales during Easter Monday evening.

So, in short be prepared for some intense downpours across Southern and Central England and Wales today and tomorrow. Quendolin won't give up her secrets just yet and the models will continue to struggle with her. So, if Metcheck says your region will stay dry tomorrow and you get caught in a shower don't blame Metcheck... blame Quendolin.

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Metcheck Forecast Team Article Comments (0)

Convective Week Coming Up

A change in the weather patterns this week as high pressure which has been the dominant force for many over the past couple of weeks slips away and allows a significant upper trough to to become established over the British Isles.

The process started over the last half of the Easter weekend with low Quendoline pushing in rather strangely from the South-east. During the first half of this week we are under the control of Iberian weather with some unstable and moist air dragged in from the continent. This will allow the potential for home grown storms across the UK during Tuesday.

For the second half of the week and it's return of the Atlantic as the upper trough and Iberian low allows the Atlantic to make inroads once again from the West. Some heavy showers expected ahead of incoming weather systems will mean the potential for some interesting convective activity this week.

Towards the end of the week and a deep area of low pressure once again swings in from the Atlantic bringing more rain and unsettled weather. The synoptic setup at the moment across Western Europe is rather interesting and will allow for a few complex situations over the next few days. Not everywhere will see heavy rain, not everywhere will see rain. But, the overall scenario shows the Atlantic making more of a presence over the coming week or so and some interesting situations developing as a result due to the strengthening sun at this time of year.

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