Metcheck Forecast Team
Fine And Warm
High pressure centred over Scandinavia is the dominant feature of the weather across much of the UK as it ridges strongly south-westwards, so for many areas it will be another fine day. However a weak weather front across western regions will bring more in the way of cloud and a little rain or drizzle here.
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This morning is starting off fine and dry for much of the UK although there are patches of mist and low cloud around, especially across eastern regions and also towards parts of the west. These will tend to lift and clear as we go through the morning with many places then enjoying another fine summers day with warm sunny spells. However some mist and low cloud may linger close to eastern coasts with an onshore breeze, and the cloud in the west may bring a little light rain or drizzle to parts of Northern Ireland and western Scotland. Temperatures for many parts will be just above normal with maximums in the range of 22°C to 25°C, but in the southeast 27°C or 28°C is possible but it will be cooler along eastern coasts.
Another dry night will follow across much of the country although thicker cloud and some rain may continue across parts of Northern Ireland and western Scotland whilst mist and low cloud will become more widespread again by the morning. Looking ahead to tomorrow and many places will see another fine and warm or very warm day but the odd shower is possible, although they will be pretty isolated with many places staying dry.
Metcheck Forecast Team
The Spanish Plume Of Gloom (and Doom)
Wow! First day for a while with no weather watches or warnings out! Enjoy!
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We thought we would take a little look at what is causing this excessively thundery Summer across the UK. There has been much talk of Spanish Plumes etc which is all fine and well, but as meteorologists we take a look back at what is causing this effect. The weather is pretty simple, put in place a series of events and you get a series of results.
One of the main contributing factors to the large number of storms and showers is the remarkably wet Winter of 2013/14 we had. This has left the soil with plenty of available moisture in which to evaporate during the summer months. If we take the summer of 2003 as an opposite example then after a dry Winter of 2002/3 the available moisture in the soil was so low that even when low pressure made the potential for storms to be available there was so little water available that showers and storms were few and far between.
At present we are in a positive feedback loop. As we get more storms, so the moisture in the soil is still there for more storms to develop and so the cycle continues.
The other (rather weak correlation) is between a developing or weak El Nino and a thundery Summer across Western Europe. This link is still being investigated and is still subject to some debate. But with the weather patterns very much locked in a sluggish regime over the next few weeks it looks as though the end of July and start of August are likely to see further outbreaks of storms.
One thing we have found out is that the Met Office EURO4 model is hopeless at dealing with Spanish Plumes and imported thunderstorms to the point of being useless to meteorologists. It missed each of the main plumes last week, whilst the American GFS picked it up nearly 10 days before.
Oh, and what type of Winter follows a thundery Summer? We will tell you the answer to this soon....
Metcheck Forecast Team
Metcheck v6 looks like being the shortest lived version of the site we have ever had? This is due to the fact that we kinda got it wrong with regards to the navigation and flexibility of the existing structure.
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But from August 1st a moratorium starts on Metcheck v6 as our programmers start work on the next version of the site. Over the weekend there was a buzz around Metcheck Towers as we started to look at the technology we are using for the next version of the site. Already we promise the following things :-
- It will be responsive (i.e work on all your devices)
- All existing pages will be carried over
- It will have a picture of a cow (on all your devices)
- It will have less adverts
- It won't make you coffee (on any of your devices)
We will shortly be opening a new area in the sandbox to get your wishlist for the next version of the site.
We are planning to launch Metcheck v7 on October 1st 2014. However, we will be running the new version alongside the existing one from September 1st to let you get used to it.
||john in trusthorpe
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