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Halloween Heat

  • Halloween Heat

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A potentially record breaking Halloween on the cards as today has the potential to be the warmest on record in some spots with temperatures approaching the 21C (70F) mark which if achieved will be the warmest October 31st on record. The weekend then looks set to see cooler conditions moving in from the west following a band of rain, but it will remain rather changeable with further showers and strong winds, especially in the west.

This morning is starting off rather cloudy, misty and murky across many areas and outbreaks of rain and drizzle are affecting northern and western parts of Scotland along with Northern Ireland and these will tend to become heavier and more persistent as we go through the day. Meanwhile towards southern and eastern parts of England there are more in the way of clearer skies around and as we go through the morning and into this afternoon some good sunny spells will soon develop across much of England, Wales and eastern Scotland, but there is likely to be more in the way of cloud lingering across the rest of Scotland and Northern Ireland along with western parts of England and Wales. It will feel quite warm in that sunshine and temperatures will rise quite quickly with highs of 17C to 20C across much of England, Wales and the brighter parts of Scotland, perhaps 21C in one or two spots, but it will be a little cooler with maximums of 14C to 16C across the cloudier and damper parts Scotland and Northern Ireland whilst southerly winds will pick up in many areas, becoming quite strong in the northwest.

It will be another mild night across the UK with plenty of cloud around, and that rain in the west will spread slowly eastwards although it won't reach central and south-eastern parts of England where it will remain dry. Drier and clearer conditions will then follow into the far west with a few showers and here will be a touch cooler with minimiums of 7C to 9C, but generally lows of 11C to 13C are expected whilst it will remain breezy, especially in the east. Looking ahead to tomorrow and for Scotland and Northern Ireland it will be a slightly cooler day with showers becoming more persistent later. Meanwhile across England and Wales the cloud and increasingly patchy rain will slowly edge across eastern and south-eastern parts of England allowing brighter conditions to follow on, but a few showers are likely near western coasts.

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Metcheck Forecast Team Article Comments (1)

Remember Remember... to check the heating

A marked change to the weather in time for Bonfire Night next week as Low Ophelia dominates the weather bringing initially a remarkably warm end to October before heading out towards the North Sea and introducing much colder air from the North. It is likely that we will see some sleet and snow across higher ground in Scotland and Wales, but as ever these things are notoriously difficult to forecast a week in advance.

One thing we are sure of it that even the hardened short wearers of you will put the heating on at some point next week with frosts and fog likely to cause some issues as Ophelia slackens out and provides some clear and cold nights with widespread ground frosts.

So, before we actually reach that phase, it's probably a good idea to check your heating over the next couple of days as we promise Dave the Plumber will be pretty busy next week with people who have suddenly found out that their radiators need bleeding.

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Metcheck Forecast Team Article Comments (0)

Turning Ophelia Cold?

Overnight model runs are always fun to look at first thing in the morning when you trundle into the office. This morning the GFS has gone off on a slight tangent as it develops Low Ophelia which pushes in from the West later this week into quite a potent area of low pressure and takes her across into the Norwegian Sea over the weekend. As we always remind you, in weather terms this is still quite a long way away and things can and will change.

Taking a look at the ensembles it is clear that this is what we call an "outlier" run. An "Outlier" is pretty much what you think it is. Kind of like not drinking coffee for a few weeks then having a double espresso when out with friends. You'll get some strange looks and people asking if everything is alright, but you're just having an "outlier".

Normally we discount these runs. But when weather models suggest it, then leave the idea alone, then come back to it a few days later then it's showing that there is something in the system which is giving this outcome credence and it's worth taking a closer look at.

We've got a forecasters discussion at Metcheck at 10am this morning, so we will have a look at this scenario over a couple of double espressos (Ed. Is that a good idea?)

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