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Metcheck Forecast Team Article Comments (5)

A Winter Of Winters

  • A Winter Of Winters

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During the next couple of weeks the forecasters here at Metcheck will take a look at what kind of winter we expect across the UK this year. No doubt you have seen all the newspaper articles regarding the potential of the coldest winter for 100 years and certain longer range models are also hinting at a blocked pattern for the coming season.

We talked a couple of months ago about the Pacific warming and the increased chance of an Atlantic blocking pattern. Not much has changed to be honest and we will cover this in more detail when we release the winter forecast.

At the moment though we are in a period where colder than average winters are more likely than milder than average due to sunspot activity and the 11 year solar cycle. It is not inconceivable for us to have a winter like 1947 or 1963 again, it's not inconceivable for us to have a winter even colder either. One concern is that our infrastructure in the country just isn't geared up to deal with something like this. Our buying, working, living lifestyle is a far cry from what it was during the 1940's and 1960's and due to years of milder winters the shock to the system would be that much greater.

Now, obviously we are not expecting an event like that this year at the moment. But it's worth remembering that we are long overdue for a severe winter in this country and nature has a funny way of always remembering her debts. Will you be telling your grandchildren that you lived through and remember the winter of 2014/15? It's not inconceivable....

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Metcheck Forecast Team Article Comments (0)

Bright For Most

The frontal systems that brought a cloudy and damp day to many parts of England and Wales yesterday have now moved away to the southeast and mean that it will be a reasonable weekend for many. However towards the northwest it will always remain rather more unsettled and windy with showers or longer spells of rain at times and here we are expecting rainfall totals to really build up during the next few days, but especially as we go into the first part of next week when a slow-moving frontal system looks set to plague the region.

Back to this morning and it will be a bright and chilly start to the day across many parts of the UK with some good sunny spells developing although across western areas there is more in the way of cloud around with the odd shower. Most of the showers are across the northern and western coast of Scotland though where some of these are on the heavy and blustery side. For today many areas will see a mixture of sunny spells and showers, the best of the sunshine across central and eastern districts with most of the showers remaining towards the north and west where they will be heavy and blustery at times. Winds will generally be moderate to fresh south-westerlies, but gales are likely in the northwest, whilst temperatures will range from 10C to 12C in the north and west and 13C to 15C across southern and eastern parts of England, feeling cooler in the wind.

It will turn into a wet and windy night across the west and northwest of Scotland with heavy rain and south-westerly gales or severe gales developing with gusts of up to 70mph possible in exposed spots. Elsewhere it will be a mostly dry night apart from the odd drizzly outbreak, but with increased cloud cover it will be a milder night as temperatures only ease back to lows of 9C to 11C. Looking ahead to tomorrow and for many parts it will be a rather cloudy day with limited brighter spells and the odd shower around, but western and north-western Scotland will remain very wet and windy for much of the day.

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Metcheck Forecast Team Article Comments (6)

Meridional Pattern Developing

Been some interesting developments in the weather models in the past couple of days with some strange weather scenarios across Europe as we move into November.

Obviously the main thing to understand is that the models are never perfect and we never take any one run as gospel. But, saying that, the models are now hinting at a pattern change which could well bring some interesting weather in the near future.

The pattern developing is a meridional one. The opposite of meridional is zonal, which is the endless areas of low pressure rattling in off the Atlantic. Meridional is where the jet stream starts to meander further from North to South and allows the amplification of areas of high pressure and low pressure to become that much greater.

When this happens there is always the risk of dragging in air from much further afield. Sometimes this can be cold (if from the North or East) or warm (if from the South) at this time of year. There is no any one signal telling us what the outcome is likely to be just yet. It's a bit like getting home and seeing a brown envelope on the floor.... is it a tax bill or a tax rebate?

One thing is for sure and that is the patterns are about to shift and give us a glimpse of what we can expect for the coming season. Worth keeping a close eye on the GFS charts over the next few days.

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