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Joshua from Birmingham

 A very nice day here in Birmingham again...


Damian from Maendy

 Hi All, another glorious day graced my p...


Iain from Walsall

 Good evening all. Report for Tuesday: it...


Metcheck Forecast Team Article Comments (0)

High Pressure *Still* In Charge

Err pretty much the only thing we changed was the front page picture to be honest as very little in the way of change across the British Isles as high pressure continues to rule the scene.

A cold start to the day today though with a widespread grass frost for much of England and Wales. Across Northern Ireland the cloud is already thickening with patchy rain spreading in from the North-west. During the course of the day this frontal system will continue to head South-west into Western and later Central Scotland.

For the bulk of England and Wales though it's pretty much wall-to-wall sunshine from the word go with temperatures responding quickly too and 16, perhaps 17c possible across the South-east.

During this evening the band of cloud and light, patchy rain will push South-east bringing a change for many areas for tomorrow with more in the way of cloud as well as a cooler feel to the weather.

And then it's Easter.... the weather is still sending us on an Easter Egg Hunt with regards to how it will develop with some strange model output this morning but we will have a full Easter forecast for you as well as a Metcheck Easter Egg Hunt on the site tomorrow.

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Metcheck Forecast Team Article Comments (1)

Easter Outlook Becomes Clearer

It's take a while but a clearer consensus of the likely weather for the Easter period is now developing. After suggestions from forecast models of a low pressure dominated weekend and then a high pressure dominated one, it looks like we're going to end up with a bit of both!

By the time we get to Good Friday we are expecting a ridge of high pressure to be pushing back in from the southwest bringing plenty of dry and bright weather with it, but the chilly north-easterly winds towards southeast England may bring more cloud and a few showers here.

Easter Saturday looks like seeing high pressure centred just to the east of the UK keeping many parts fine and settled, but those cool easterly winds in the south may continue to bring a few showers to southern and south-eastern parts of England.

It's from Easter Sunday onwards that conditions deteriorate from the south as pressure falls. Exact timings and details at this range are still subject to change, but we have reasonable confidence that showers or longer spells of rain will be pushing up from the south on Easter Sunday with most areas then seeing a rather changeable Easter Monday, so our advice is to make the most of the better weather on Friday and Saturday.

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Metcheck Forecast Team Article Comments (6)

Summer 2014 - Ay Carumba El Nino!

Ahh the holy grail of long range forecasting.... Sometimes we have a bash at it here at Metcheck.... and sometimes we don't.

The reason is usually that sometimes there are no strong signals which are present in order to actually make a forecast. We've always been told if you've got nothing important to say then don't. Some newspapers would do well to adhere to this advice.

Saying that we have more sensationalist articles in the papers today informing us that "experts" are predicting a long, hot summer for the UK. Sadly, these "experts" don't seem to be using the same signals which qualified "experts" use.

For Summer across North-west Europe we tend to look at two main pointers. The first being the amount of late Spring snowfall across Europe and the second being the sea temperatures across the Eastern Pacific. Too much late snow and it tends to mean a delayed Summer but a good one (take last year for example). Then we look at the state of the El Nino or La Nina. This year all indications point to a strong El Nino developing in the next few weeks. This, combined with lack of Eurasian snow cover indicates a wetter than average Summer for us here in the UK. Obviously this doesn't mean rain every day but a long, dry and settled Summer is looking more unlikely.

But then again we might be wrong... but nobody remembers a busted forecast like 100 days of snow.... or do they?

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