Ahh we knew it wouldn't last...
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Some interesting soundings across the UK this morning (these are the weather balloons some poor soul has to release at 6am every morning). They are showing some impressive instability across the South-east where the CAP is likely to be broken when somewhere reaches 26c.
Here is a little bit of insight into the magic of meteorology so no talking at the back and we'll tell you how to watch developments and how meteorologists forecast where storms break out.
OK, the magic number is 26c, so during today we will be looking for any areas (particularly large towns/cities) which will reach that figure. The reason is that air works like bubbles, so the warmest bubble will rise first and as it does so will trigger the first shower which then draws in energy from the surrounding air. The most unstable area today is across the South-east corner, particularly towards the East coast of Essex. By knowing this we look at areas which have the potential to heat up first, our best guess is around the Chelmsford area which could well be the trigger.
As this area develops it will head South-west across the London area feeding on even more heat, humidity and energy creating what could be some impressive cell structures across the capital early this afternoon.
So, there you go. A bit of an insight into how we forecast on a micro-scale level, now it's just up to the weather to play ball, but if you live in or around Chelmsford then keep an eye to the sky... and Metcheck of course.