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Metcheck GFS Ensembles
Every day, the GFS (Global Forecast System) is run at the following times :-
00z, 06z, 12z and 18z
For each of these runs, the model is run a further 10 times, each time with slightly different starting criteria and different physics used. We call each of these runs "ensemble members". This allows us to view the overall confidence in a developing situation.
Premium Members can access full size charts as well as individual variables from each run
Below are the latest ensemble runs from the GFS.
 HelpThis information is updated 4x a day based on the latest GFS model run. The ensemble members are formed of 10 individually perturbed runs
Perturbation is a way of nudging the initial data figures away from the recorded value. The reason this is done is to show the inherent problems with obtaining a "perfect" starting condition for the model. By perturbing the data, the model shows the various outcomes based on slightly different starting data. This allows the user to see the confidence and range of forecast deviation out to 8 days in the future.
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