Right, we have taken a darn good look at this system which is rattling in from the Atlantic tonight and overnight into tomorrow. In fact, we've probably checked out more models than the late Hugh Hefner in the quest to find out how this system will develop as it heads in from the West, deepens and clears the East coast tomorrow morning.
The system never quite reaches the threshold which we have for a weather watch, part of this is due to the timing of the system as well as winds which never quite manage to make it to 50mph which is what we would class as a watch for the start of October. That said, our little fruit drops... if you have stuff around in the garden which could get blown around then it's worth taking a few minutes to put them in a place where they will still be tomorrow morning.
The first issue is tonight with a combination of heavy rain and strong winds approaching Western areas. The heaviest of the rain is always going to be on Western facing high ground, so think areas of Northwest Wales, Western Pennines and Cumbria. Then overnight the winds spread East into Central and Eastern areas. Thermodynamic models show that the gusts won't be particularly much stronger than the average wind of the system, so 30-40mph inland gusts with a 20-30mph wind.
Tomorrow morning however, strong winds develop across parts of the North Sea as the system pushes out into the near continent. The risk of some slightly higher gusts for parts of Lincolnshire and North Norfolk for a time, perhaps just a tad over 50mph onshore which could cause some issues at high tide with over topping along the North Norfolk coast.
Perhaps the biggest concern in the rain across Western areas combining with rapid leaf fall which could cause some issues where drains become blocked. Some weak branches and tree debris also possible on roads for a time early on Thursday morning across Central and Eastern England too.
So, a messy and troublesome little system coming in tonight and overnight, but no weather watch will be issued from us as it now equates to a rather typical October blow and we will save our yellow crayons for the bigger systems which come in later this month.
METEOROLOGIST : MARSH
|