It's been a rather strange Tropical season in the Atlantic this year. Everything started off so quietly and then Harvey happened and then like buses, they all seemed to come along at once. We've seen pretty much everything Mother Nature can throw at us this year with back to back major hurricanes across the Caribbean, major hurricanes making landfall across the US coast and then Ophelia as a category one hurricane nearing the UK waters! What is going on?
You may be fooled into thinking that the bley world is ending and this is the new "norm" if you believe the hype. You may be feeling guilty that all those times you left your car engine idling on a cold winters morning contributed to this or the times you opened the back door while your mum was baking a cake causing it to fall flat not only ruined her Victoria sponge but contributed to the worlds crazy weather!?
In fact, the reason is probably down to the fact we have a perfectly natural feature called La Nina in the Pacific Ocean this year. This phenomena is as old as time itself and it follows on from a large El Nino which occurred last year. These ENSO events have well known effects around the world. Some are reliable (like the potential for hurricanes in the Atlantic and Pacific), whilst others are tentative and unproven (like cold winters across the UK during an El Nino).
Last year we had a big El Nino which warmed many of the Equatorial waters in the Pacific and Atlantic. This year, with a weak La Nina it meant that the atmospheric conditions across the Atlantic were ripe for hurricane development with low wind shear across the Tropics and the systems also had the added benefit of warmer than normal oceanic conditions.
Perhaps there is something else going on? But as meteorologists we understand that energy is neither created nor destroyed and that it usually ends up as rain on your car. All that energy pent up in the oceans from last year had to go somewhere and all it needed was a trigger which allowed it to happen which came in the form of a weak La Nina, both of which are totally natural events on planet earth.
So, you can relax. It probably isn't your fault that we are getting this active tropical Atlantic season, but as for the Victoria sponge? You might have to take one for the team for that.
METEOROLOGIST : CLOSETHEBACKDOOR
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