It's been a funny old start to the year, certain a mild one for much of England and Wales where the CET is running pretty warm at present, but still a couple of weeks left of January, so we thought we would share our musings over the models and ensembles over the last few days to see what might be in store.
This week will be pretty interesting due to a large and dominant primary low pressure system which is near Iceland. This will provide further unsettled weather with rain and seasonal temperatures for many places with snow for the mountains in Scotland.
Back to the models and the GFS has been having a bit of a moment with regards to the weather in the medium term which is currently the back end of next week (i.e 22nd to 25th). The model wants to ridge high pressure to the East and build something over Scandinavia, but this has only happened in the few of the previous runs and hasn't had the backup of the ensembles, but these are still based on the old physics remember.
In some runs, the GFS builds high pressure to the East, but it refuses to build and instead drags in milder air from the South or Southeast. In others, such as the overnight run last night, so the high pressure ridges a little further North and we see a brief incursion of some colder air from the near continent.
At the moment though, the models are undecided on this, as are the ensembles. The reason is down to the complexity of the pattern this coming week with the secondary low pressure systems, once they are out of the way then we should see the models settling down with regards to what could happen for the end of the following week and into the rest of January.
If there is no cold incursion, then the CET figure could be rather impressive this year, but if there is then January might have just delivered a normal month after all.
METEOROLOGIST : MARSH
|