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 Hello folks. Report for Friday: it was an unremittingly cloudy day, an...

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Complex Low Next Week

Added : Yesterday at 13:24

Well, when we say complex, this doesn't mean that we don't know how it will work out, or models are struggling. In fact, there isn't an opposite name i.e Simple Low.

A complex low is were an area of low pressure has more than one centre. Take a look at the one expected across the UK next week :-



Sometimes, these are formed when the centre of gravity of the main low is misplaced, or when a strong over running jet stream within the outer boundaries of the main system develops a new secondary system.

In this case though, the complex low is formed by one area of low pressure stagnating across the UK as another system runs in from the West.

What generally happens, is that the low pressure centres dumbbell around each other until one centre is established. This is what the GFS ► progs by Wednesday :-



The problem though, is that there are still plenty of short wave troughs running around the system as remnants of the previous low pressure centres. You can see how these look by viewing the rainfall forecast distribution for next Wednesday :-



A bit messy eh? When we have low pressure areas across the UK at the end of June then obviously convection and heavy showers are at the forefront of our mind, but throw in a complex low pressure system and an unsettled week on the cards with very uneven distribution of rainfall based on where the centres of the low actually move to.

METEOROLOGIST : MARSH


Archived Past Discussions

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Good Model Consistency  (16 Jun 2017)
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The Azores High Pulsates (12 Jun 2017)
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High Pressure Set To Try And Take Control (10 Jun 2017)
Flamin' June! (8 Jun 2017)
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Atlantic Back For June (31 May 2017)
GFS Over Spinning Again? (30 May 2017)
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Storm Risk In Next 24 Hours (28 May 2017)
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The Summer Feedback Loop (23 May 2017)
Turning Warmer And More Settled (20 May 2017)
Eastern Clipper? (18 May 2017)
When Nature Knows Best (17 May 2017)
Wednesday's System - An Update (16 May 2017)
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The Poor Man Of Extreme Weather (15 May 2017)



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