Update On SundayAdded : Saturday at 18:05 OK, we're now well and truly into the time frame where the high resolution forecast models are covering tomorrow's snow event so lets take a look at what's being predicted.
The trend over the last few days has seen the frontal system bringing tomorrow's snow gradually being edged further south and this has continued today with areas south of a line from Merseyside to the Wash looking set to be affected most.
Milder air will affect the far south and southeast of England keeping the precipitation as rain here, but for a zone extending from Wales across the Midlands and into parts of East Anglia it does look like a period of significant snowfall is possible. Let's take a look at the latest output.
We will start with the 12z GFS ► output with the charts for 6am Sunday and 12 noon Sunday:
On the GFS ► output it is central parts of Ireland, central and North Wales and the north-western part of the Midlands that see most of the snow. However, we have higher resolution models than the GFS ► so we will take a gander at these. Starting with the 12z output from the HARMONIE model and we can see that by 7pm tomorrow the snowiest areas extend from central Ireland, across central Wales and then across the south Midlands across towards Essex:
Meanwhile the 12z ICON has the snow zone slightly further north of the HARMONIE model with central/north Wales and the Midlands seeing the heaviest snowfall:
The snow risk then extends into East Anglia before easing during the afternoon:
For the record, other high resolution models such as the EURO4 have all trended slightly further south on their 12z suites but it does look like the zone extending from central Ireland, central/north Wales, the Midlands and into western parts of East Anglia is likely to see the greatest snowfall amounts. Accumulations will vary from area to area, but 5-10 cm is possible quite widely in these regions, with some locations seeing a touch more.
METEOROLOGIST: BARBER |