GFS Throws A Peach (not a real one...)Added : Wednesday at 13:55 Sometimes, when meteorologists look at model runs we are pretty confident on the shorter end of the run due to agreement with other models, but then, when the model enters the medium and longer range region of the output we tend to scoff and think "yeah right!" but underlying this is an understanding of what the model is *trying* to resolve.
A great example has been in the last few days on the GFS. The model towards the middle of February has been hinting at a more Northwesterly regime as low pressure systems come in from the Northwest, but in the back of our mind we know that these scenarios tend to play out with low pressure duck diving to the South of the UK with a colder Easterly developing as low pressure systems track further South thanks to colder air flooding South out of Greenland.
Over the last few runs the GFS ► has sort of hinted at this, but todays 6z run it has finally gone with the scenario.
Here is how it plays out...
The next few days are on the cold side thanks to a rather stiff Northerly :-
On Sunday, we have a rather tricky system worth watching as it heads Southeast across Southern England with snow on the Northern edge :-
Into next week and the GFS ► hints at an Easterly, but it's a short lived affair as the Atlantic is well in control and the Northwesterly rears its head once again :-
Towards the back end of next week though is where things get interesting... A shot of much colder air coming out of Greenland, a cold Europe and low pressure across Newfoundland :-
This scenario forces cyclogenesis (formation of low pressure systems) to happen further South where colder air from Greenland approaches tropical air to the South :-
Even towards the rear end of the run and the GFS ► carries on develop low after low in the Central North Atlantic, way further South than normal thanks to the colder air feeding South from Greenland :-
Obviously, this discussion comes with the usual terms and conditions. DO NOT take charts too far in advance seriously, but the GFS ► has for once shown what happens when the colder air from Greenland floods South in the Atlantic and the knock on effect for us.
The question now though... is will it happen?
METEOROLOGIST : MARSH |