Colder Weather IncomingAdded : Saturday at 13:15 You will almost certainly know by now that we are expecting colder conditions to develop during the next few days as we initially draw in some cold air from the east before cold air approaches from the northwest as we go through next week. If you're not a fan of the cold then there is a glimmer of hope in that milder conditions may return by next weekend, but this is a long way off.
As soon as tomorrow we have a north-easterly flow setting up, especially across more southern parts of the UK as high pressure over Scandinavia links up with the Azores High:
This allows some pretty cold air to the east to head our way during the course of Sunday and Monday:
Now it's not a true "Beast from the East" in the sense that it will be a fairly transient affair and with high pressure close by any convective activity is likely to be confined to eastern and south-eastern coasts. Some wintry showers will develop during Sunday and there is the potential for a "streamer" to develop, a "streamer" being where showers form into lines and become quite persistent. The high resolution Arpege model hints at one for the eastern tip of Kent:
Due to sea temperatures, rain or sleet is likely on and close to the coast, but a little further inland there may be a little snow.
The risk of showers continues in the east and southeast on Monday in a keen easterly wind, but for many high pressure will bring plenty of dry and bright weather with some sunny spells. This will then be followed by a widespread frost on Monday night:
However, you will notice that it's not as cold over Scotland, Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland. The reason for this will be an Atlantic frontal system pushing in from the northwest:
As it approaches Britain and Ireland it will contain some milder air, but cold air is following on behind so as that front runs into the cold air in place across much of the UK on Tuesday so that milder air is squeezed out.
Here's the chart for Monday evening with that strip of mild air across western Scotland down towards western Ireland:
By Tuesday lunchtime that mild air has gone:
The result? The band of rain associated with that frontal system turns to snow as it sinks south-eastwards. Here it comes into the northwest on Monday evening, falling as rain but turning to snow over mainland Scotland:
It then turns more and more to snow as it sinks south-eastwards during Monday night and into Tuesday with wintry showers following into the north and west:
Wednesday then looks like staying rather cold with a mixture of sunny spells and scattered wintry showers, the showers mainly around windward coasts before the next Atlantic frontal system moves in on Thursday. It's still a way off, but the model output has been fairly consistent in showing this feature to have more of a mild sector associated with it:
Subsequently rain is more likely to fall from this system as it pushes eastwards with the latest GFS ► output showing this up well:
All in all a cold few days ahead with some hard overnight frosts and some snow in places although nothing significant is anticipated. A trend towards less cold conditions appears towards the end of the week as we return to an all too familiar pattern for this winter of low pressure systems pushing in from the west or northwest.
METEOROLOGIST: BARBER |