The Ridge That's The BridgeAdded : Tuesday at 13:40 Some rather unsettled weather for the UK and Ireland over the next day or three as low pressure systems approach from the West bringing rain, sleet and snow for higher ground combined with some rather strong winds.
Here is the chart for tomorrow :-
Pretty much a bog standard chart for the middle of February for the UK. Then by Friday and things start to happen around us.. The first thing is high pressure building across parts of Western Russia :-
Then we also have a ridge of high pressure developing from the Azores :-
Now, neither of these two things would usually warrant our attention by themselves. But the GFS, as are a few other of the global models are hinting on a hookup between the two systems by the early part of next week as low pressure around the Baltic area heads South :-
Now, this is the point where the models start to diverge with regards to the finer detail. Most of them hint at an Easterly developing for the second half of the month, but added complications of thin warm layers and lack of any available moisture is is keeping this meteorologists feet firmly on the ground at the moment...
The GFS ► toys with this scenario, but lack of definition of the high pressure system coupled with a rather strange handling of the low pressure across Central Europe only adds to our uncertainty of how well organised any Easterly would be.
The GFS ► has this :-
The ECMWF ► in a similar range has this :-
Whilst the GEM sits in between the two :-
How that high pressure develops and how it interacts with the low pressure across Central Europe is still hugely uncertain and we are expecting a few more changes to the models at the moment due to current volatility in the medium range of them.
That said, an interesting synoptic scenario at the moment and into next week and one worth watching if you enjoy your model output.
METEOROLOGIST : MARSH |