Changeable Conditions Set To ReturnAdded : Saturday at 14:30 The mostly fine, warm and dry Bank Holiday weekend (away from the far northwest) has been well documented but as meteorologists we are always looking ahead and so our thoughts turn to the rest of next week and the lead up to the mid-May period.
For once the weather seems to have got things the right way round with high pressure to the east helping to feed in some warm continental air so we are expecting some very warm temperatures for Bank Holiday Monday:
However that high is coming under attack from Atlantic low pressure systems and by Tuesday the breakdown has started with cold fronts pushing eastwards:
These fronts look like being fairly weak on the whole, bringing some showery rain with them, but as they meet the warm air over the country there is a small risk of some isolated thunderstorms breaking out in the south later on Tuesday but this is a very small risk indeed and confidence is low regarding this possibility:
What they will do is introduce fresher air from the west by midweek, but also more unsettled conditions, especially towards more north-western regions:
The GFS ► has a rather deep low approaching the northwest, but the UKMO model brings this low in on a more southerly track:
The UKMO solution this morning appears to be something of an outlier as both the GEM and ECMWF ► output today go more along the lines of the GFS, for example here is the GEM:
There is then a trend for the end of the week and into next weekend for the northwest to see the worse of the more changeable conditions with some strong winds at times along with rain or showers whilst the further southeast that you come the drier and more settled it is likely to be, although even here some showers may be possible from time to time. All in all after a fine and warm Bank Holiday weekend the weather returns to more normal conditions with that northwest/southeast split really quite evident and, much like this weekend, it is the northwest that unfortunately comes off worse.
METEOROLOGIST: BARBER |