Looking Towards Mid-JulyAdded : Saturday at 14:30 As we approach the mid-point of meteorological summer it's fair to say that for many people summer 2018 so far has been pretty impressive in terms of dryness, temperatures and sunshine amounts for many parts of Britain and Ireland - so much so that comparisons with the hot and dry summer of 1976 have started to be made.
Certainly it has been a pretty sustained spell of dry and very warm weather for most, but not all, parts of the country - something that we've not seen in quite some time. The question is how long will it carry on for?
Looking ahead into next week shows that the week will start off how the weekend finished with Monday remaining fine, sunny and very warm or hot for many areas:
However the highest temperatures will be across more southern regions where the low thirties are again likely:
However, it will be cooler in the north and the reason for this is a weak cold front that will be slowly sinking southwards on Monday:
It will be very weak, bringing little more than cloudier skies with just the odd shower, but it will introduce a cooler and fresher air mass from the north so that Tuesday morning dawns on a cooler note in the south:
With high pressure still in charge there will be plenty of dry weather around but maximum temperatures will be at a more bearable for many of us with a cooler north-easterly breeze across the south meaning that the highest temperatures will be towards the southwest:
Much of the rest of the week then looks like seeing a ridge of high pressure continuing to keep most places fine and dry, but there is likely to be more in the way of cloud around compared to recent days which will make for a cooler feel and that cloud could bring the odd shower:
The models have been indicating the potential for a breakdown for more changeable conditions with a greater risk of some rain or showers developing around the mid-month period. However, as we head closer to the time frame in question high pressure is looking more resilient and so the breakdown is getting pushed back. A couple of days ago next weekend was looking more changeable, but the latest model output for next weekend keeps many areas still under the influence of a high pressure ridge. Here's the GFS:
The ECMWF:
And the GEM:
The upshot then is that while temperatures may tail off for a bit, the generally fine and warm theme continues through next week although there is likely to be more in the way of cloud around at times. All in all, another pretty good week of summery weather but not so good for those needing rain.
METEOROLOGIST: BARBER |