Showers And Remnants Of ChrisAdded : Monday at 15:35 A week of three parts coming up as we see high pressure slipping away to the West bringing a warm start, showery middle and end then something a little different perhaps for the weekend.
Here is the chart for today :-
High pressure well in control, but note the low pressure across parts of Scandinavia. This feature is running South and will allow some cooler, fresher air to come into Eastern and Northeastern areas throughout today and tomorrow.
The high pressure though is losing the battle of intensity with a strengthening jet stream and by Thursday we have a weak ridge over the UK but synoptically it's closer to a col than a ridge :-
This goes some way to explain why the GFS ► develops some heavy showers across Western areas on Thursday afternoon :-
And again on Friday :-
By Saturday morning and a feature which we are keeping an eye on is remnants of Tropical Storm Chris which is currently off the East coast of the USA. The system is expected to deepen over the next few days and then later head Northeast as it gets caught up with a fast moving upper trough and by Saturday remnants of the system are South of Greenland :-
Once again, these are remnants and Chris will eventually be absorbed by a mid latitude low pressure system to the Northwest of the UK based on the latest GFS ► model run :-
The overall effect of these systems on mid latitude lows is to deepen them and also distort the centre of gravity of the system. If the models are to be believed then remnants of Chris could develop that Icelandic low and bring it slightly further Southeast over next weekend and into next weekend.
But quite a few things have to happen before we even get to that stage and forecasting of tropical systems is inherently difficult and charts at the moment regarding Chris should be taken with a barrel of salt.
METEOROLOGIST : MARSH |