Warm Southerlies DevelopingAdded : Sunday at 14:30 If you were up and about early this morning you would have felt a distinct nip in the air that made you think "ah yes, autumn is here". However, the coming days will likely end up with you hearing mention of "Indian summer".
It was a chilly start this morning with a widespread ground frost and some air frost having formed overnight under clear skies:
However by the middle of this week it will be turning warmer with temperatures on Wednesday night holding up in the low-teens in places:
A look at the pressure charts will help to explain what is going on. For this weekend a cold front has moved away to the southeast to allow a colder air mass to move in from the north but as we go through the next few days pressure builds strongly to the east of the country:
Winds will gradually back more and more to a southerly direction with winds coming up from north Africa by midweek:
This is a warm direction at any time of the year, and certainly if it was mid-summer we'd be looking at some very hot temperatures. Even so, early to mid October can see southerly winds bringing temperatures into the low twenties and this is what we're expecting:
Unfortunately this doesn't mean fine and settled weather, a lot of moisture will be dragged up with this warm air so many areas will see a fair amount of cloud for much of the time and out towards the west some very wet weather looks likely at times this week.
In fact a lot of rain is expected across northwestern regions during the next 48 hours or so, especially across western Scotland where over 150 mm (6 inches) of rain is possible in one or two spots:
We're also watching the potential for some very wet and windy weather to sweep across many areas by Thursday:
A lot going on this week with warmth and rainfall the main features to keep an eye on as we head towards mid-October. As for Tropical Storm Leslie out over the tropical Atlantic...there's no indication that he is heading our way at the moment.
METEOROLOGIST: BARBER |