High Pressure And TemperaturesAdded : Tuesday at 14:50 One of the hardest things for meteorologists and weather models to predict is rainfall (or snowfall for that matter). The second hardest thing is cloud cover and this plays a major role in temperature forecasts which can be wildly out sometimes when you get low cloud and didn't forecast it and vice versa.
If you take a look at the chart for next Monday you can see this :-
High pressure across the UK. No doubt that got you thinking about whether you've put your shorts away for the Autumn/Winter season? But, high pressure at this time of the year is more important to forecasters than it would be in say July.
If this was July, then we would confidently predict temperatures around 22-24c with the warmest of the temperatures in the Southeast, but it's not July.... It's October.
This brings in the additional contribution of what we call Diurnal Variation. In mid October our nights are longer than our daylight hours which means that temperatures drop away faster overnight than they can recover during the day, but that brings the additional complication of mist/fog and low cloud which stops the temperatures from falling away as quickly.
If you look at the GFS ► handling for cloud for the same period we see this :-
Clearer skies for the South, but still cloud coming around the top of the high across much of the UK. This cloud forecasting is important as it will temper any lower overnight temperatures.
That said, the sun is still powerful enough to bounce daytime temperatures back into the low to mid teens.
So, high pressure in control next week with average daytime temperatures and cooler nights with an increasing risk of mist and fog for Southern and Western areas in the lighter winds.
METEOROLOGIST : MARSH
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