Thursdays Rather Interesting SystemAdded : Wednesday at 13:50 Right, bit of a deep down and dirty meteorological discussion today on the system expected across Southern areas overnight tonight and into tomorrow.
These things are never as clear cut as we might hope for... After all, we don't live in Siberia and lots of factors come into play when a system comes in from the West and runs into colder air across the British Isles.
Here is the system at the moment :-
Standard low pressure system in the Atlantic and it's heading East. If you take a look at the upper level temperatures overnight tonight, then you'll see colder air drawn in ahead of the system at height :-
Notice also, the warm sector to the South and Southwest of the low as well as the circulation which draws in milder air from the English Channel.
If we switch to the mesoscale models for tomorrow morning then you can clearly see the system across Southern areas of the British Isles :-
The temperature near surface level shows the warm sector up clearly, but to the North of the circulation we have temperatures hovering just above freezing :-
The AROME model continues to take the system East with snow falling across the Northern edge of the system across the Midlands and later into East Anglia :-
By midday and you can see the circulation of the low pulling in temperatures of 1-3c across Eastern areas, this is called low level undercutting and keeps the low temperatures across Eastern parts of the Midlands and East Anglia tomorrow morning and into tomorrow afternoon :-
As a result, some snow for lower levels of the Midlands and perhaps East Anglia later tomorrow morning, but rain further South thanks to the warm sector. Nothing too major, but a cm here or there :-
But, a decent example of low level undercutting with low pressure running across Southern England.
METEOROLOGIST : MARSH |