Humans 1 : Computers 0Added : Saturday at 11:20 We had a discussion earlier in the week about how a boring chart can actually be a rather interesting one behind the scenes (if you missed it, then you can read it at the archive at the bottom of the page).
This coming week though looks rather tasty if thunderstorms are your thing. But, this is a period where you will see numerical forecasts and output in your apps change every few hours depending on whether the model forecasts thunderstorms to cross you or not.
You may see one forecast with 30mm of rain and other dry, then they swap over a few hours later.
This is the inherent nature of a week like next week.
Basically, though next week we have a sluggish low pressure area moving North across the British Isles :-
It's a rather slow affair and this allows the system to throw up a succession of short wave troughs through the course of the week. With moist and warm boundary air across the UK this becomes a very ripe recipe for heavy and organised thunderstorms. But, at the moment it's too early to tell where and when.
A classic example is the chart for rainfall for next Wednesday evening :-
That will change in the next run, we guarantee it, but it shows the potential for the storms across Southern areas.
At the moment, our way of thinking is storms for Central and Northern areas on Monday evening, Central areas on Tuesday and then Wednesday and Thursday more general thunderstorms moving North across many areas.
That'll probably change and next week many of the days will be nowcasting events looking at the day ahead. If you love/hate thunderstorms then next week is/isn't for you. As always, not everywhere will see them, but a very interesting week coming up for the UK for meteorologists and we will try our best each day to explain what we are looking for and why as well as the infamous pin the meteorological tail on the meteorological donkey.
METEOROLOGIST : MARSH |