Time For Brrrr.... ollies!Added : Sunday at 11:04 A total change in the weather this coming week as we ditch the European high and instead replace it with a strong Westerly jet stream which will in turn bring some notable winter storms to the UK. What will come as a shock is that this Winter so far has been relatively quiet in terms in wind storms.
This is the jet stream for Wednesday :-
Note the active Atlantic jet but then as it reaches the UK it fragments. This is due to the European block which it is running into, but fast forward to the end of the week and we have this :-
The block has been broken and in its place the jet stream has a virtually uninterrupted flow from West to East.
Any meteorologist looking at that chart would then expect to see some deep and potent areas of low pressure rattling in from the Atlantic... and that's exactly what happens :-
You can see the GFS ► spinning up several notable storm systems which start to roll in at the end of the week and into next weekend, but don't get too hung up on the exact tracks and intensities just yet. The reason is that the main upper low which affects the UK on Thursday is strongly negatively tilted with colder air to the far Northwest of the system. This will result in the low pressure probably developing two centres which dumbbell around each other. This in turn affects the intensity of any systems which run in to the South of the main system.
This means that this system on Saturday :-
Might be more or less active, whilst the system behind it :-
Might be less or more active depending on the initial system. This is a common weakness in numerical forecasting and one which will be resolved probably within the 2-3 day time frame.
But, the main thing to be aware of is that from this week onward we ditch the frost and fog and in turn replace it with a rather stormy period of weather.
METEOROLOGIST : MARSH |