Increasingly Changeable Next WeekAdded : Saturday at 12:57 A week and a half of winter 2016/2017 is left now and following what is set to be a fairly mild and dry winter, will there be a sting in the tale for the final days? Certainly if it's widespread wintry weather that you are looking for then you are likely to be disappointed, but a more active pattern does look like developing during next week.
To begin the week the mild weather that we are currently experiencing will continue and if anything will peak on Monday as a Tropical Maritime air mass with origins from Florida moves across Britain and Ireland. The air mass will have been modified somewhat by the time it reaches here, but nonetheless a very mild day is expected, especially when any sunny spells break through:
Temperatures widely look like making the low teens, and maximums of 16°C or 17°C cannot be ruled out in more sheltered eastern regions:
The mild weather continues through to the middle of the week in the south but further north temperatures will tend to fall back a touch as increasingly unsettled conditions develop as low pressure passes to the north of Scotland:
This system looks like bringing some potentially very wet weather to the north of the country:
Along with a risk of gales:
However, if you were following our discussion yesterday you will know that we are monitoring the development of a potentially nasty little feature for late Thursday into Friday. The latest model output this morning continues to show this potential feature, but there are differences over the handling of it. The latest GFS ► run deepens the secondary low slightly later which reduces the worst of the potential wind and rain impacts but still brings some very wet and very windy conditions with it along with colder air from the northwest:
Meanwhile the ECMWF ► model has a slightly different take bringing widespread gales to the west in particular:
The UKMO model moves this system through quicker and it isn't such a deep feature:
Reasonable agreement then on a more active period of weather developing as we go through next week but the finer details such as the intensity and timing of the system later in the week are still to be determined. We will of course keep you updated.
METEOROLOGIST: BARBER |