Chilly Start To Spring On The Cards?Added : Tuesday at 19:44 Tomorrow is March 1st meaning that meteorologically speaking it is the first day of spring. However try telling that to Mother Nature! We currently have a southerly tracking jet stream and some weak heights to the north of the UK and Ireland which, if we were in the depths of winter, would bring some wintry weather to many areas. However as it is we are at the end of winter and thus most of any wintriness is mainly over higher ground.
Here is Wednesday's synoptic chart:
And here's the jet stream forecast to go with that:
As we go through the next few days the jet stream remains to the south:
Even into next week the jet looks like remaining further south with many parts of Britain and Ireland on the colder northern side:
So what does this mean? Basically if you're hoping for a mild start to spring then the chances are that you are likely to be disappointed, especially the further north that you are.
During the next few days Atlantic frontal systems will be bringing periods of rain from time to time across southern parts but with this will come the mildest of the temperatures on offer:
Meanwhile further north it will be drier and sunnier for much of the time with just some scattered showers but here it will be colder as reflected by the maximum temperature chart here for Thursday:
And those clearer skies mean that there is plenty of night frost to come across these northern regions in the coming nights:
Looking towards the medium term outlook and tonight's numerical model output is hinting at a potential rise of pressure over Scandinavia as we go into next week. Here's the UKMO model for Monday:
And here is the ECMWF ► model for the same time frame:
Whether this high pressure influences our weather remains to be seen, but it's worth noting that there is still plenty of very cold air away to our north and northeast which doesn't rule out the potential for wintry outbreaks as we go through March:
METEOROLOGIST: BARBER |