Wednesdays WobbleAdded : Tuesday at 8:15 Worth a closer look at this system which rattles in from the West on Wednesday evening and overnight into Thursday.
From a meteorologists point of view it's borderline Weather Watch material due to a couple of things which we will explain in this discussion.
The GFS ► shows the system up rather well here :-
Doesn't look like much does it? But in fact, it's a lobe of vorticity which is attached to the primary low pressure system to the West of it, but it gets caught up with the jet stream over-running the top of the system which deepens it and brings it quickly Eastwards.
By Wednesday evening, the system is across Northern Ireland with some rather strong winds packing in along the Southern flank of the system :-
Global models are rubbish at showing the details on these things, but is we switch to the ICON then you can see the system in better detail which also seems to agree with the GFS ► :-
The main issue comes from the wind, but some heavy rain embedded within this secondary low too with a wet end to Wednesday for Northern Ireland and Northwest England :-
Strong to gale force Westerly winds for Western facing coasts overnight Wednesday and into Thursday with the risk of strong onshore Northwesterly winds for parts of North Norfolk on Thursday morning :-
So, worth a weather watch or not? The winds nearly reach the threshold for the watch, especially at this time of year with the trees still in full leaf, but the leaves are falling, which then adds the additional issue of rapid leaf fall with rainfall accumulations. 15mm of rain isn't much to get worried about, but add rapid leaf fall and blocked drains and you can see the problem.
The other question is whether that system deepens a little slower than the ICON and GFS ► suggest, in which case it would be the low countries which take the full effect of it.
When these scenarios happen, we usually say "Let's just wait and see what the 6z shows" to see whether there is agreement or a pattern. But just a heads up on what could be an interesting secondary low.
We are aware, we are monitoring it and we are using all the models available to see how this system develops, but "Let's just wait and see what the 6z shows".
METEOROLOGIST : MARSH |