Global Discussion : Lack Of ForcingAdded : Tuesday at 12:15 It's a rather interesting, yet infuriating time for meteorologists in this part of the world at the moment. Take a look at the CAPE chart across Europe :-
This is basically, the model saying to us "The conditions in these areas have the potential for thunderstorms".
And that's great! Usually, we then hone in on certain areas where we expect the potential to be highest. The trouble is that at the moment, the atmosphere across much of Western Europe is ripe and primed for thunderstorms, but not everywhere will see them. We usually look for other factors which initiate the movement of the air from the surface upwards. These are usually one of four things :-
- Incoming trough, probably the most reliable of indicators.
- Orographic lift, where air has to go up over a mountain range or hill.
- Sea Breeze, where air coming in from the sea meets air inland and rises
- Low level convergence, similar to sea breeze but can happen anywhere.
But, at the moment there are a lack of troughs. We know where the mountains and coasts are, but the conundrum is figuring which of these becomes strong enough to initiate the lift.
As an example, across Southern England today, will the sea breeze trigger some storms, or perhaps the South Downs further North?
You know Metcheck, we try to pin point the best areas, but there are times, few and far between admittedly, where the scenario is so large, so uncertain and so balanced where we have to throw our hands up and say "OK Nature! You've won! Now show us..."
The next few days are scenarios like that. Expect forecasters to get the general area right, but the detail wrong. But, it's why we love this science and why nature will always remind us that no matter how big our computers, we can't out guess the weather all the time.
METEOROLOGIST : MARSH |