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 Dull overcast morning with a fresh breeze. Beautiful if cool day yeste...

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Cloudier, Wetter, Milder

Added : 7 hours ago

The new working week is upon us and with it comes a change in the weather as milder south-westerly winds return following the colder north/north-westerly winds that many of us saw over the weekend. However, at this time of year milder weather usually means a lot of cloud with some rain at times and this week will be no exception with increasingly unsettled conditions expected to develop as we go through the week as heavy rain and the risk of gales become the main weather feature.

The week is starting off cloudy but mild for much of the country with temperatures having risen overnight as outbreaks of rain, and hill snow over Scotland, pushed north-eastwards. This rain is currently affecting many northern and eastern parts of the UK but the heavier and more persistent rain will gradually push away to the east today to leave many parts of the country with a mostly cloudy day and the risk of some further patchy rain and drizzle at times. However by this afternoon some brighter spells will develop in places, more likely towards the southwest, but sunshine will be at a premium today. Despite the cloud it will be a much milder day with temperatures widely back up into double figures with maximums in the range of 11°C to 14°C, but it will still be rather cold in the far north with single figure maximums here.

A mild night follows for much of the country as temperatures in the south and southwest remain in double figures but it will be colder across central and northern Scotland. It remains predominantly cloudy with some patchy rain and drizzle along with mist and fog patches, especially over higher ground, and the rain will turn heavier and more persistent in the northwest later in the night. This takes us into a mild day tomorrow, away from the far north, but increasingly wet and windy conditions will be developing across many northern and western regions with only the southeast of England likely to remain mostly dry.

METEOROLOGIST: BARBER

Radar ► Airmass ► Rainrisk ► The Week Ahead ► 



GFS Continues Blocking Hint

Added : Monday at 18:05

If you have been following the numerical models over the last few days then it should come as no surprise to you that the GFS is continuing to hint at a Northern Blocking pattern developing for the second half of November.

That's all fine and well and we can hear you saying "Wow! A block... Who would have thought?" or "That's amazing! A block must be rather impressive... unless it's a lego one that you step on!" But what on earth are we talking about when we say that there is an increased risk in Northern Blocking?

OK, well as you probably know, here in the UK most of our weather comes in from the Atlantic. We live in a region which meteorologists call mid-latitude which means that our weather here is rather varied, but our "normal" weather is low pressure areas coming in from the Atlantic with Southwesterly winds, a bit of rain then cooler with showers as the winds turn to the Northwest.

Sometimes, we get blocking highs. These are every forecasters nightmare if they form over or to the Southeast of the UK as they mean that the weather is unlikely to change for the next couple of weeks at least.

Northern Blocking though is different. It's where the usual low pressure systems which rattle around the North Pole and Arctic latitudes are replaced with a high pressure area. Depending on where this high pressure sits and the shape will decide where the colder air goes when it starts moving South. You can sort of replicate this with a cup of tea on your desk. If you stir the tea anti clockwise then you'll see the bubbles (or colder air in this case) stay in the centre, but if you then put your spoon in the middle and hold it steady then the bubbles all move away from the centre.

That's pretty much what the high pressure does (ps - It doesn't actually look a big spoon!) It disturbs this flow around the Arctic and allows colder air to come South. Being a La Nina year, this isn't completely unexpected. Also, no guarantees it will happen or where the colder air will head in the next week or two. But keep an eye on the GFS charts over the next few days and we will try to show you a bit more detail in this in the discussion tomorrow.

METEOROLOGIST : MARSH

GFS ► 


Metcheck GFS Commentaries

Added : Friday at 11:10

Bit of a shameless plug for one of our features on the site, but it's a feature which many users might think "Oh, that's a little bit too complicated for me" or "I'm not quite sure what I'm looking at!"

We have upgraded the GFS commentaries this week to provide better stability and also meteorologists on this side can now add arrows to images to show you what we are talking about or commenting on.

If you have never seen or read the GFS commentaries before then they basically take place at either 9.30am or 3.30pm (or both) when the new and updated GFS model run comes through. Our system lets you see the latest chart coming through and next to it the previous model run for the same time. This will let you see whether the model is in agreement of this happening or not. If you aren't sure what you are looking at then don't worry, below each image you will see how the meteorologists here are watching the charts and showing you the differences between the two model runs.

If you are new to GFS charts or just want to know more about how they work and what meteorologists are looking for in them then why not join us for the next GFS commentary on the site? You can check out the latest one using the link below as well as look at archived ones for the last thirty days, but if you see GFS COMMENTARY RUNNING at the top of the page then have a look and we think you'll find it rather interesting...

Shameless plug over...

METEOROLOGIST : PLUG

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