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Halloween Heat

  • Halloween Heat

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Halloween was the warmest one on record yesterday with maximum temperatures in Gravesend, Kent reaching a remarkable 23.5C and smashing the old record by 3.5C. This weekend will see cooler conditions moving in from the west following a band of patchy rain which will slowly clear the southeast today, but it will remain rather changeable with further showers and strong winds, especially in the west.

This morning is starting off rather cloudy and damp across central and eastern parts of England with a little rain in places, but already there are more in the way of clearer conditions moving in across the rest of England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland and as we go through the day those brighter skies will spread across the rest of England although the far southeast may remain cloudy with the odd shower for much of the day. Elsewhere there will be a mixture of sunny spells and the odd scattered shower before cloud thickens across many western areas with outbreaks of rain moving in across Northern Ireland and into western parts of Scotland, England and Wales by dusk. Temperatures whilst not as warm as yesterday will again be on the mild side with highs of 17C to 18C towards the southeast of the country, but cooler with maximums of 11C to 14C across most other areas whilst southerly winds will pick up, becoming quite strong in the west.

That rain in the west will spread slowly eastwards tonight although it won't reach south-eastern parts of England where it will remain dry. Drier and clearer conditions will then follow into Northern Ireland with a few showers and here minimiums of 7C to 9C are likely, but more generally lows of 10C to 12C are expected whilst it will remain breezy. Looking ahead to tomorrow and for many parts it will be a bright day with some sunny spells, but showers will break out in the north and west. Meanwhile that band of cloud and patchy rain will slowly edge across eastern and south-eastern parts of England, perhaps turning heavier for a time later in the day before eventually clearing away on Sunday night.

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Metcheck Forecast Team Article Comments (1)

Remember Remember... to check the heating

A marked change to the weather in time for Bonfire Night next week as Low Ophelia dominates the weather bringing initially a remarkably warm end to October before heading out towards the North Sea and introducing much colder air from the North. It is likely that we will see some sleet and snow across higher ground in Scotland and Wales, but as ever these things are notoriously difficult to forecast a week in advance.

One thing we are sure of it that even the hardened short wearers of you will put the heating on at some point next week with frosts and fog likely to cause some issues as Ophelia slackens out and provides some clear and cold nights with widespread ground frosts.

So, before we actually reach that phase, it's probably a good idea to check your heating over the next couple of days as we promise Dave the Plumber will be pretty busy next week with people who have suddenly found out that their radiators need bleeding.

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Metcheck Forecast Team Article Comments (0)

Turning Ophelia Cold?

Overnight model runs are always fun to look at first thing in the morning when you trundle into the office. This morning the GFS has gone off on a slight tangent as it develops Low Ophelia which pushes in from the West later this week into quite a potent area of low pressure and takes her across into the Norwegian Sea over the weekend. As we always remind you, in weather terms this is still quite a long way away and things can and will change.

Taking a look at the ensembles it is clear that this is what we call an "outlier" run. An "Outlier" is pretty much what you think it is. Kind of like not drinking coffee for a few weeks then having a double espresso when out with friends. You'll get some strange looks and people asking if everything is alright, but you're just having an "outlier".

Normally we discount these runs. But when weather models suggest it, then leave the idea alone, then come back to it a few days later then it's showing that there is something in the system which is giving this outcome credence and it's worth taking a closer look at.

We've got a forecasters discussion at Metcheck at 10am this morning, so we will have a look at this scenario over a couple of double espressos (Ed. Is that a good idea?)

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