High pressure has built across the UK and Ireland during the last 24 hours but it is already heading off for pastures new as it drifts away to the northeast today. This allows for a couple of things to happen. Winds are turning into a east/south-easterly direction and these winds will draw up increasingly warm air during the next 24 hours or so but at the same time pressure is falling from the south as a thundery low develops and pushes north out of the Bay of Biscay - yes we're in classic Spanish Plume territory.
This morning starts off dry and sunny for many parts of Britain and Ireland and for most places it will be a fine and increasingly warm day with long spells of hot summer sunshine bringing high or very high UV levels. There is some cloud around towards the far north and northeast of Scotland along with the Northern Isles, but this will tend to break up as we go through the day. We also have some cloud towards the far southwest of England and southern Ireland, this cloud thick enough to bring the odd scattered shower. The shower risk will tend to increase as we go through the day though with thunderstorms expected to develop over parts of the English Channel before drifting into parts of southern and south-western England this afternoon, turning locally heavy in places. It will be a warm and increasingly humid day everywhere with temperatures widely into the low to mid-twenties and highs of 28°C or 29°C are likely in places despite the freshening east/south-east winds which will bring a cooler day to eastern coasts.
Showers and thunderstorms across the south and southwest this evening will extend further north across parts of England, Wales and Ireland tonight. Not everywhere will see the storms, but where they do occur they could bring some torrential downpours, C-G lightning, hail and gusty winds. It will remain mostly fine and dry to the north but it will be a warm night, especially in the southeast. Those showers and thunderstorms continue to push northwards tomorrow with brighter conditions following into the south, but as the temperatures rise so further scattered storms may break out later in the day.
METEOROLOGIST: BARBER
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