A big contrast in weather types to our west and east at the present time with a large, blocking high having formed over Scandinavia and western Russia whilst Atlantic low pressure systems wind themselves up out to our west leaving the UK and Ireland caught up in the middle of this battle. If this was mid-winter we'd be looking at a classic bitter easterly coming up against the encroaching Atlantic fronts bringing heavy snow to some areas. However it's not mid-winter, we're at the end of September and so the continent has not cooled down yet, nonetheless this is a pattern causing problems for the forecast models.
So what does it mean for the outlook over the coming days? Broadly speaking it could be summarised as an east-west split with eastern parts of the country most likely to come under the influence of that high out to the east with plenty of fine and benign autumnal weather on offer with temperatures close to or just above normal. Meanwhile out to the west those frontal systems are likely to push in at times bringing spells of rain from time to time which could be heavy and persistent due to the slow-moving nature of those fronts. There is some uncertainty over how far east and how quickly these fronts move, but it's important to stress that even in the west it won't be raining all the time and that there will be some drier and brighter weather around too.
This pattern takes us into the early part of next week and thereafter confidence falls away as the models try to get to grips with the synoptic pattern. A blocking high out to the east causes problems for the models at the best of times, but they are also trying to resolve what happens out over the Atlantic with the remnants of tropical systems bringing plenty of energy so it's still anyone's shout as to if September finishes on a unsettled note or a more settled one.
METEOROLOGIST: BARBER
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