February is almost upon us and although it is the third month of meteorological winter, it is also a month where thoughts can start to turn towards spring with the increasing hours of daylight and the potential for some drier and milder weather at times. Of course, it is still a winter month and sometimes it can deliver some of our coldest weather.
For now and we are transitioning to a mild or very mild pattern as a notable upper ridge develops across Iberia where there has been some very warm weather in the last few days. Indeed, some of the charts over the next few days wouldn't look out of place in summer as south/south-westerlies feed in some very mild air along with some Saharan dust so don't be surprised if you see some dust deposits on vehicles in the coming days along with the potential for some spectacular sunsets and sunrises. It won't be completely settled though with some wind and rain towards the northwest at times, and some of this will try and extend further south from time to time with colder air moving into the north.
The mild weather looks set to continue into early February across central and southern regions of the UK with pressure remaining high to the south, but colder air is never going to be too far away from the north and we will be monitoring things as we head further into the month. The numerical model output is showing some signs of introducing more widespread cooler conditions across Britain and Ireland, but a lot will depend on the behaviour of high pressure to the south. Models have tended to underplay this feature over the last few weeks and if this continues then a milder outcome may continue to be the outcome.
METEOROLOGIST : BARBER