Spring is a time where the polar vortex naturally weakens and with that comes increasing amounts of higher latitude blocking, that is high pressure. Most years see these blocking patterns setting up to our north and east for periods of time, often bringing chilly winds off the North Sea and a fair amount of low cloud and murk to the east whilst western regions fare better in terms of sunshine and temperatures.
This week sees high pressure building over Scandinavia and this feature looks set to become quite a significant block which is going to fend off the Atlantic low pressure systems. However, with the UK and Ireland on the western periphery of this high then we are always going to be more susceptible to seeing frontal systems pushing in across the country and becoming slow-moving as they meet that blocking high.
The finer details, such as the orientation and strength of that high still remain rather uncertain which will ultimately determine whether those frontal systems can be held to the west or whether they move in across the country. This will make a big difference between seeing a much needed drier spell of weather with east/south-easterly winds developing and a continuation of the wet conditions that have dominated much of the winter.
The model output is very much split on the likely outcome, with some runs even bringing some very cold easterlies our way as high pressure builds towards Iceland. However, these are very much in a minority. Consideration also has to be given to the time of year with the strengthening sun and the approaching spring equinox, therefore the favoured outcome is for something of an east/west split developing with the west seeing the more unsettled conditions whilst the north and east may hold onto something drier with temperatures near to normal.
METEOROLOGIST : BARBER
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