Latest DevelopmentsAdded : Sunday at 11:42 We're going to take another look at the expected developments for the coming week as the numerical model output gets to grips on a rather complicated set-up.
It's still a bit too soon to firm up on the finer details with the latest trend from the forecast models being to move Wednesday/Thursday's Atlantic low a touch further north that what has been indicated over the last couple of days.
Here is the latest ECMWF ► output for Wednesday night:
And the latest UKMO for the same time frame:
Good agreement there from the European models of the system passing close to the north of Scotland. The GFS ► model is also in agreement but notice the deep trough extending south from this low - this marks the cold front:
Marking the boundary between the mild air to the south and much colder air to the north, this cold front could potentially be quite an active feature as it pushes east so we will be watching this for the risk of some very squally winds and some locally heavy rain as it passes through:
By the end of the week all models agree on a much colder plunge of air from the Arctic affecting all parts of Britain and Ireland:
And with this comes the prospect of sleet and snow showers around the coasts in particular:
All in all nothing too out of the ordinary for early December with wet and windy weather midweek giving way to much colder northerly winds by the end of the week, these winds bringing the risk of some snow, mainly to exposed coastal regions. It is important to point out though that an unstable set-up such as the one currently being forecast for Friday always brings the chance of troughs moving south bringing the risk of wintry showers to more inland regions but these won't be picked up until much nearer the time.
METEOROLOGIST: BARBER |