The GFS Goes It Alone... Or Does It?Added : Wednesday at 12:45 Right, it should come as no surprise that this weekend will see the weather turn much colder as we draw in a Northeast/East wind across the UK. For the snow lovers out there then this is a rather poor direction when it's due to high pressure building from the North as you get colder air, but much drier air too and snow granules will probably be the order of the day.
But, this isn't the most interesting thing. Check out the GFS ► for Sunday :-
High pressure across the UK and colder air drawn in from the East. Fabulous! Now, check out the ECMWF ► for the same time :-
Pretty good agreement, so let's take a look at the GEM to see what that model is thinking :-
Hurrah! All three main global weather models all singing from the same hymn sheet.
Now take a look at next Friday from the GFS ► :-
You can see how the GFS ► collapses the high pressure to the East and instead brings back in the Atlantic with another ridge of high pressure. Not an uncommon synoptic and we can see where the model is going with this, but now take a look at the ECMWF ► for next Friday :-
Woaah! Now, that is a chart! Surely the GEM won't go with the ECMWF?
It does! So, we have the GFS ► out on a limb with a return of the Atlantic next week, whilst the ECMWF ► and GEM show rather impressive agreement for an Easterly to develop.
Now, they can't both be right can they? In scenarios like this it is worth looking at ARCUS which pulls in over 120 model runs from the GFS, Ensembles, ECMWF ► and ECMWF ► Ensembles as well as the Parallel GFS ► Ensembles and the GEM Ensembles too... And what does it show?
Interesting....
A long way off this one and something which we are keeping an eye on. But if you ever see one model going of on its own tangent then always check out the ARCUS super ensemble which will show you what the average of all the global models is thinking.
Regardless of what happens next week, wrap up warm for this weekend as it will feel a tad chilly.
METEOROLOGIST : MARSH |