Easterlies Developing Next Week?Added : Saturday at 13:45 If you're a keen follower of the numerical model output then you will know that the last few days have provided some really quite volatile output as the models tried to get to grips with the impacts of the recent Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW).
A whole range of solutions for next week have been offered by the models at different stages during the last couple of days, these outcomes ranging from bitterly cold air moving in from the east to an early southerly plume style event.
The latest output appears to be settling down on the outlook for next week with high pressure set to become increasingly influential across Britain and Ireland. However, at the current time we have a weakening frontal system making its way eastwards across the country:
With another set of fronts to move in from the west on Sunday:
Note how pressure is rising (1034mb) over Svalbard on the chart above though. As we go through next week it is looking increasingly likely that high pressure will settle across Scandinavia. For the early part of the week though this increase of pressure to the east will slow the frontal system down as it crosses the country so although it will be a relatively mild start to the week, there is likely to be a lot of cloud around with some patchy rain in the east:
Gradually though high pressure will begin to establish itself across Britain and Ireland by the middle of next week although a colder north-easterly wind will develop towards the south:
Beyond this point is very much open to conjecture but eyes will be on developments to the northeast. This morning's 6z GFS ► run shows how a low pressure system drops southwards across Scandinavia which opens the door for increasingly cold easterly winds to set in across Britain and Ireland:
This evolution has some support from the UKMO model as well:
With the ECMWF ► model showing a slightly less cold east/south-easterly flow for the same time whilst milder air and fronts from off the Atlantic affect the far northwest:
A look at the super ensemble mean (our ARCUS model) gives fairly good backing for high pressure to be over or even to the north of Scandinavia for the end of next week with colder easterly winds in the south, but milder and more changeable conditions may never be too far away from the far northwest:
Interesting times ahead and although colder easterly winds do look like they could develop during the course of next week, high pressure looks like it may be close enough to keep many areas, away from the far west and northwest, mainly settled so not a true "Beast from the East" in that sense...not yet anyway!
METEOROLOGIST: BARBER |