Update On MondayAdded : Saturday at 15:30 Monday's very disturbed weather for the south-eastern portion of the UK has been showing up for a while in the forecast models, but we're now entering the period where the high resolution models cover the time period in question.
The fun and games (for want of a better word) gets underway during Sunday as low pressure moves up from the south and deepens. Initially the most noticeable feature indicating that this process is under way will come by way of freshening north/north-easterly winds across central and southern regions during Sunday, indicated on this chart by the isobars tightening up:
Outbreaks of heavy rain will then begin to move up from the southeast, arriving across southeast England by Sunday evening according to the GFS:
By Monday morning's rush hour some very heavy rain is expected across East Anglia, southeast England and parts of central, southern England. Accompanied by strong winds this will make for some hazardous travelling conditions with the risk of local flooding so we advise you to keep tabs on the forecast if you have travel plans for Monday morning.
The 00z Arpege model was a little slower to bring the rain in with it not arriving across the southeast until later on Sunday evening:
And by Monday morning it is also painting a very wet picture across East Anglia and southeast England:
Meanwhile, strong to gale force winds could well gust up to 50-60 MPH in exposed spots, and perhaps up to 70 MPH around the coasts which combined with spring tides may bring some additional problems:
There are still some differences regarding timings, both the HIRLAM and HARMONIE high resolution models bring the rain in quicker on Sunday evening, meaning that by Monday morning's rush hour the heaviest rain is further north and west. Here's the HIRLAM for Sunday at 6pm:
Rain will into eastern and south-eastern England so that by Monday morning...
The rain has spread across many parts of England and Wales. Meanwhile the HARMONIE model has this for Sunday 6pm:
And then this by Monday morning:
Regardless of timings, some very wet weather on the way across the southeast. In fact by Tuesday some places will have seen over 2 inches of rain:
And it could even be cold enough for some wet snow in the heavier rain over higher regions (Arpege suggests the Kent Downs):
Meanwhile for the rest of Britain and Ireland it will be a much quieter couple of days with plenty of dry weather around, some bright or sunny spells and just a few scattered showers - so by no means will everywhere be affected by the wind and rain.
METEOROLOGIST: BARBER |