Meteorologists v ForecastersAdded : Thursday at 14:15 The difference between a forecaster and a meteorologist can be summed up pretty much in one chart which comes today courtesy of the UKMO FAX charts :-
A forecaster will look at that and think "Woah! Batten down the hatches, wet and windy weather incoming!"
A meteorologist will look at it and think "Woah! Batten down the hatches, wet and windy weather incoming! But what do you think of that mid level front to the South of the system and low level convergence ahead of it?"
By this point, the forecaster has gone off to grab a sandwich and a bag of crisps which leaves the meteorologist alone to ponder the actual risks associated with systems like these.
If you take a look at the ICON rainfall chart for Friday you can see this :-
Note that Storm Callum is to the Northwest of Ireland and the frontal system associated with it is across the Shetlands, but the big blob of rain across Wales and the Irish Sea? What is that?
The answer is that it's a mid level front which comes in around the Southern flank of Callum. Ahead of it there is a very rich, moist boundary layer near the surface which taps into the front. This, combined with strong upper level winds brings a very active area of rain Northeast with the risk of embedded thunderstorms, especially where they form into what we call "Bowing Lines".. not "Bowling Lanes". If you see lines of heavy rain develop tomorrow on the radar then prepare for some very strong winds around it as well as the risk of funnel clouds too thanks to the deep instability and shear which increases throughout the atmosphere.
If you take a look at the wind speed forecasts you can see how this mid level front brings a burst of strong winds across parts of Wales, Southwest England and Northwest England tomorrow afternoon. This is a feature which we will be keeping an eye on.
So, a few things to watch around Storm Callum tomorrow. Strong winds around the centre sure, rain spreading in from the Southwest, but keep an eye on that mid level front and how it interacts tomorrow afternoon across Western areas.
Oh hello, the forecaster is back! Time for me to get some sandwiches and crisps now....
METEOROLOGIST : OUTOFOFFICE |