West vs EastAdded : Sunday at 14:30 Here is the synoptic chart from earlier on today - low pressure (974mb) is sitting over Scandinavia with a colder north/north-westerly flow beginning to develop across Britain and Ireland:
The frontal systems that brought a showery start to Sunday in the south and west are now clearing away and a ridge of high pressure will build in for the start of the new week:
By Tuesday high pressure (1027mb) is developing over Scandinavia whilst deep low pressure systems develop out over the North Atlantic:
This sows the seeds for an almighty battle to take place as those Atlantic lows come up against the high and its associated colder air. You can see how that cold air is affecting much of central and north-eastern Europe:
By Wednesday we can see that the freezing level across the country has dropped a tad, but the proper cold air remains out to the east:
Meanwhile the contrasting air masses out over the Atlantic help to spawn some deep low pressure systems:
However, initially at least, that high and embedded cold air fend off this Atlantic low and it struggles to make much eastwards progress before the energy from it "disrupts" south-eastwards:
It is this process that is causing the headaches at the moment as it depends on where and when it happens as to if anywhere sees snow later in the week. There's little doubt that a band of heavy rain will be trying to push in from the west, probably on Thursday, but if some of that cold air to the east is drawn into the mix then there is a risk that the rain could turn to snow. Latest indications from the model output is that conditions will not be favourable for snow unless you're in the Scottish mountains:
If the transfer of energy takes place earlier then there is a greater chance of more widespread snow for a time, if it takes place later then the snow risk is reduced.
Regardless of the finer details over this first system coming in from the Atlantic, there is good agreement on unsettled conditions prevailing as we head into next weekend with the Atlantic taking control of our weather and we are watching for some potentially stormy weather to develop:
We'll keep an eye on this storm risk and keep you updated throughout the week. |