Next TuesdayAdded : Thursday at 14:25 Sometimes, it's pretty impressive when the GFS ► (or other models) pick up on a feature over a week into the distance and then continue to keep a similar intensity and timing of it as the models continue to update.
When events like this happen, what we tend to do is increase our confidence in a certain weather type, but play down any intensity until it comes into a more believable range.
OK, back to next Tuesday and this is the system in question :-
We've been monitoring this for a few days now here at Metcheck HQ and if anyone asks us what the weather will be like next Tuesday then we are pretty confident it will be unsettled. But, at what point do we give a heads up if we expect dangerous weather? The answer is... not yet and for good reason.
If you take a closer look at this low and look at the rain areas you'll notice something :-
You can see the primary low to the South of Iceland and a secondary low developing across Western areas of the British Isles. This process is hugely complicated for numerical models and we call this system a "complex low". This isn't because it's complicated or anything like that, but it means that it's not your average run of the mill mid latitude low and any low pressure system which develops other circulations within in it is classed as "complex".
The FV3 has been doing pretty well on these and this is the FV3 take on the system :-
Note the secondary low developing much further South.
When you get systems like this, you may wonder why we hardly mention it until a few days away? The reason is that the overall complexity and known weaknesses of global models tend to overspin them and as we get closer we start to see the relationship between the primary and secondary low take away the overall intensity of the system.
So, wet and windy next Tuesday? Yeah. But, before meteorologists get too excited, we wait until it falls into higher resolution models first.
METEOROLOGIST : NOTEXCITEDYET |