Sundays SystemAdded : Friday at 14:25 Still some uncertainty over this particular system, but we want to give you an insight into how meteorologists work. We don't look at something and think "Oh my goodness! That's going to happen and we are so, so sure!!". Instead, we have events which we pick up on, then look at all the evidence to suggest how likely something is to occur.
Here is the system in question :-
Doesn't look like much does it? But, the system continues to head West through today and tomorrow and gets caught up in the jet stream and a main primary low across the UK, but tomorrow night we have this :-
That's an impressive low for September, but we are still in July with trees in full leaf, restrictions on people going out being lifted (that's a new one we have to factor in) as well as a time of day all come into play when we decide on things like weather watches.
The system comes in overnight which is a bit of a blessing, but the GFS ► progging some strong winds on the Southern flank of the system which it currently takes across the Borders during the early hours of Sunday.
The problem with these systems, is that, it's a bit like releasing a marble down a slope. We know roughly the direction and the time it will reach the bottom, but exactly where and how fast are dependent on the trajectory of the ball. The weather system has the same issue with physics. How much will it interact with the jet, will it develop a little quicker and move North or less so and move South.
At the moment, the strongest of the winds are expected anywhere between Scotland and the Pennines, by tomorrow and we should be able to narrow this down to a swathe of around 100 miles, then by tomorrow evening we should know exactly where and when the strongest of the winds will occur.
That said, it's an impressive system for July in anyones books and worth keeping an eye on if you have interests across Northern areas over the next day or two.
METEOROLOGIST : MARSH |