Do We Need To Look East?Added : Sunday at 14:30 Some signs of a change to the Atlantic dominated pattern of recently with pressure trying to rise during the course of the coming week.
Here is today's pressure chart and it's a pretty zonal set-up with a large depression over Scandinavia and another low to the south of Greenland whilst a high pressure belt extends from Newfoundland, across the Azores and into much of central/southern Europe:
Not too much changes during the next couple of days with milder air returning across Britain and Ireland for a time as south-westerlies develop in advance of the next low pressure system pushing in from the Atlantic:
However, note the increased amplification out over the North Atlantic as high pressure tries to ridge northwards. This ridge looks set to eventually topple over across towards our part of the world to bring a colder but drier and more benign end to the week:
Beyond this and confidence drops, but model guidance is continuing to hint at a pressure rise to the east of the country, although to what extent and how/if that impacts Britain and Ireland remains to be seen. Here is the latest 6z GFS ► output:
Which goes on to develop this chart by day 11 - a potentially chilly flow off the near continent:
The 00z ECMWF ► model produces a continental flow by next weekend:
But this was swept away by day 10:
Meanwhile, the GEM model also goes for a quieter end to the coming week:
But is also unsettled again by day 10:
So reasonable confidence on a quieter spell of weather developing later in the week and into next weekend with some potentially frosty and foggy nights, but beyond that remains uncertain with signals currently tending to favour a return to more changeable conditions for early December. High pressure to the east may have other ideas though as the latest GFS ► indicates.
METEOROLOGIST: BARBER |