Easterlies Set To ReturnAdded : Yesterday at 15:40 Working my way through the collection of Easter eggs here at the Towers this Easter Sunday afternoon but in between mouthfuls I've been taking a look at the prospects for the second half of April.
Here is the forecast chart for this coming Friday from the latest GFS:
Here's the ECMWF ► for the same time:
And the UKMO:
The snow and winter fans amongst will be screaming "if only it was January" as seems to be the case every year in April. Indeed the singularities back this outlook up with this time of year often dominated by winds from the north or east as the Atlantic quietens down.
It also comes as no real surprise as high pressure has generally dominated to our south for many weeks now, so an unsettled spell for Iberia and the western Mediterranean was probably to be expected at some point.
Clearly there are some differences in the finer details, but as any model watcher will tell you. to have this sort of agreement on an easterly at T+120 in the UK in January is like gold dust!
Of course, everything is very different in April and easterlies at this time of year can bring some warm and sunny weather, especially towards more sheltered western and north-western regions. However, wind direction is important. Winds coming in from north of east will have a longer sea track and will therefore pick up more moisture and drag in a fair amount of mist, fog and low cloud which will suppress temperatures. However, if those winds are south of east, then the chances are better for some sunnier and warmer conditions to develop.
Unfortunately, if you enjoy spring warmth and sunshine, the cooler and cloudier outcome is favoured and the second half of the coming week is looking rather disappointing with a lot of stubborn low cloud likely to dominate and that wind taking the edge off those temperatures, especially as those winds will be quite brisk at times:
These winds may also bring some showers at times, especially towards the south closest to that low pressure:
This easterly dominated pattern then looks set to last for quite a while:
Yes, that is a reverse east to west flow across the North Atlantic at day 9 on the GFS ► ensembles, backed up by the ECMWF ► ensemble suite too:
Make the most of any warmth and sunshine you have today in the east, those easterlies are on their way.
METEOROLOGIST: BARBER |