Nothing In The Tea Leaves
Added : Friday at 14:10
One thing we have been keeping an eye on recently is the ensemble output for the start of August. Now, you might wonder why this is? The reason is that the GFS ► picked up on the impressive heatwave almost two weeks before it happened.
The model correctly forecast a cut off upper level low to the West of Portugal which acted as a heat pump and brought the Saharan air North.
Initially this was a couple of the ensemble runs as well as the operational run and like a dog with a bone it held onto this idea right up until the event.
At the moment though, nothing is expected in terms of extreme heat for the start of August :-
You might wonder why we are even looking at this date? The reason is that the start of August are the dog days of Summer in the Northern hemisphere and based on weather singularities it is traditionally the warmest time of the year for the UK.
Obviously this doesn't mean it happens every year otherwise there would be no point trying to forecast the weather, but in terms of singularities it tends to be a rather reliable one.
Then again, maybe the weather is reminding us that it is in control and based on the latest ensemble output and operational models, this year it might simply choose to do something else instead...
METEOROLOGIST : MARSH