Thunderstorms Next Week?
Added : Wednesday at 13:35
If you reminisce about Augusts of the past then they tend to include stag beetles, warm days, harvested fields and... thunder...
It's one of the most reliable months in the calendar for this type of weather due to stagnating weather patterns, residual heat and also the surrounding seas nearing their annual maxima.
But this year, due to high pressure, the thunderstorms have been kept at bay.
You can see how the band of high pressure systems across our latitude continue to affect the British Isles :-
But into next week we see low pressure from the South move North and this releases some of the CAPE across the UK :-
The GFS ► still rather keen on promoting a ridge to the North later into next week, but you can see the rather stagnant scenario across Western Europe :-
The other ingredient needed with thunderstorms is moisture, in particular near surface areas. At the moment, with the parched soil across parts of England we see the boundary layer in rather short supply of this. However, if the thunderstorms and rain arrives, then the feedback mechanism should start to develop.
METEOROLOGIST : MARSH