Added : Sunday at 14:30
If you've been following our discussions over the last couple of days then you will be aware of how the numerical model output has been struggling with secondary low pressure development. Tomorrow is a prime example with a deepening feature pushing in later tonight :-
This system has now been named by Met Eireann in anticipation of heavy rain and gale force winds bringing the risk of some damage and disruption, and the intensity of Debi has only really been picked up in the last few runs.
If we take a look at the high resolution Arpege model, we can see how Debi deepens as she pushes north-eastwards, bringing wind and rain with her later tonight and into tomorrow :-
Rainfall amounts are a concern once more with parts of Ireland, Northern Ireland, southwest Scotland and northwest England potentially seeing around 50mm of rain which will be falling onto saturated ground bringing the risk of localised flooding.
Winds are also a concern with Debi, especially on her southern flank where gale or severe gale force south-westerlies are expected to develop with gusts around coasts and hills expected to exceed 65 MPH :-
There are still some differences between the models so it's worth keeping a close eye on developments. For example, the ICON model shows the risk of higher gusts :-
Regardless, Debi does move through quite steadily so conditions will improve from the west during the course of day but for some a rather wild start to the working week.
METEOROLOGIST : BARBER