The Model Crux
Added : Wednesday at 13:00
The global models still struggling a little with regards to next week and whether or not high pressure develops to the North of the UK. When situations like these develop in to the models then they tend to be due to how a model resolves just one single feature.
So, for this discussion we are going to reverse engineer the run to see where the model is struggling. At the moment, the GFS ► going with high pressure to the North next Tuesday and as a result some chillier Easterly winds developing across the UK with low pressure to the Southwest :-
This low pressure system is sitting out near the Azores on Sunday and brought North thanks to another smaller low pressure system which drifts across the UK later on Sunday :-
Taking the charts back to tomorrow and you can see how these two systems spawn off a frontal system in the Atlantic to the South of Greenland tomorrow and these could well develop into tropical systems for a time as they develop today :-
As a result, it's how the models deal with this rather complex trough over the next day or two which will dictate whether the pressure height rise to the North next week is likely to take place.
METEOROLOGIST : MARSH