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When Nowcasting Rules

Added : Wednesday at 13:00

There are probably a handful of times in the year when we look at the models and they give us a fairly good indication of weather events happening, but at that point they not only disagree with each other, but also disagree with themselves run by run.

Some of this uncertainty can come down then physics packages which the models use. For example, the convective package for global and regional models differ due to the higher land/sea mask which regional models use. But then, when the model is re-run, the best guess might also change due to new radar or satellite data as well as observations.

This evening we have some heavy thunderstorms developing across Northern France :-



High confidence in this, but the uncertainty is to the North of this across Southern and Southeast England. The atmosphere remains well primed and very moist and unstable at mid and upper levels and a decent risk of any thunderstorms being able to brush across the far Southeast later tonight and overnight given that cooler air across the Channel is unlikely to play a part.

Then, overnight and into tomorrow we see the atmosphere destabilise across more Northeastern areas initially with a risk of thunderstorms here, before the sun gets to work on the land and the risk increases across Western areas as a rather flabby mid level trough moves in :-



By the time the trough moves into Central and Southeastern areas later tomorrow it is able to tap into more lower level atmospheric conditions, but the triggers remains localised in the form of hills and cities which provide the initial catalyst for development.

So, a risk of thunderstorms across Southeastern areas tonight and overnight and tomorrow this develops across Western areas and moves East. If you want any more detail than that then you might as well ask your cat!

In short, tonight and tomorrow it will be a case of sprinkling salt on the weather models and keeping an eye on the radar and StormSat.

METEOROLOGIST : MARSH

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