Monday Night Snow RiskAdded : Sunday at 14:50 If you have have been following the model output over the last few days you'll be aware of the Monday / Tuesday low pressure system heading in from the west and bumping into the colder air that's also moving southwards across the country :-
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Admittedly, as meteorologists, it has been fascinating to watch the numerical models trying to get to grips with the potential outcome. We've seen all sorts thrown in, heavy rain, severe gales, blizzards and even the kitchen sink (not sure about that one Marge, perhaps someone can confirm?).
Finally the models seem to be coming to a resolution with a shallower feature moving in later tomorrow on a more southerly track than what was being progged just yesterday. However, there are still some differences as a look at the latest high-resolution output shows for 00z Tuesday, starting with the Arpege :-
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Here is the DWD ICON output :-
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The GFS ► for comparison :-
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Finally, the UKV for the same time frame :-
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We now have reasonable agreement of this system tracking in across central parts of Wales and exiting to the east via Suffolk/Essex. However, even at this late stage there is still margin for error and as little as a 50 mile difference in that track (north or south) could be the difference between rain and snow.
The snow risk will always be highest to the north of this system where the cold air is, so at the moment higher parts of northern England and the North Midlands could see several cm's of snow during Monday night and early Tuesday which may cause some issues first thing on Tuesday morning. There is also a chance of some snow falling further south for a time on Tuesday morning as the system clears to the east allowing that colder air from the north to dig in but generally this will be transient in nature for more southern counties.
Much of the week is then looking cold countrywide with hard overnight frosts and wintry showers around windward coasts :-
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There is then another complication potentially appearing late on Wednesday and into Thursday for southern counties of Britain but we will deal with that headache after tomorrow night's headache has cleared on Tuesday.
METEOROLOGIST : BARBER | 
