Another Mixed WeekAdded : Saturday at 13:03 Another mixed week of weather is on the cards for next week as we initially see high pressure bringing mostly fine conditions before warmer south-easterly winds develop ahead of a thundery low moving in from the southwest by midweek. This thundery low then looks set to give way to cooler and fresher air from the west again for the end of the week but by then the more changeable conditions look set to become confined to more north-western regions of Britain and Ireland.
Let's take a look in more detail and if we start with the forecast chart for Monday we can see how high pressure (1026mb over Ireland) is building across the country with a weak weather front lurking close to the south coast:
For most places it will be fine with plenty of warm sunshine on Monday although cloud may linger in areas close to the English Channel. Temperatures will pick up in the sunshine with values widely into the low-mid twenties:
Temperatures pick up further on Tuesday, especially in the south, and you can see the hot weather affecting much of western Europe:
The reason for the uptick in temperatures is south/south-easterly winds feeding up that very warm air ahead of that low pressure system to the west of the Bay of Biscay:
By Tuesday evening and overnight into Wednesday the atmosphere is expected to become increasingly unstable as that low approaches from the southwest and a combination of the increasingly warm and humid air mass and falling pressure will bring the potential for thunderstorms to break out. It's still too soon to firm up on the details, but the high resolution Arpege model shows the potential nicely with western and then northern regions favoured:
This is something that we will be watching closely during the next couple of days as there will be the potential for some heavy thunderstorms to break out with a risk of C-G lightning, hail and localised flash flooding, but as always in this type of set-up any storms will tend to be rather localised and many areas will miss them.
The second half of the week, as would be expected at this range, carries a little more uncertainty. The ECMWF ► model wants keep a cooler and rather unsettled outlook over the country, but the UKMO model tends to keep the more changeable conditions across more north-western regions whilst southern and south-eastern regions are more settled:
The latest GFS ► output errs more towards the ECMWF ► way of thinking:
Another interesting week of weather on the cards then but it does look like the return of any heat will be rather short-lived.
METEOROLOGIST: BARBER |