Ophelia... You're Breaking My Chart!Added : Thursday at 8:37 Oh 'ang on... It was Cecilia wasn't it? Oh well, never mind. Some rather interesting overnight model runs in terms of Ophelia which is now a category 1 hurricane out in the Mid Atlantic.
First of all let's get something out of the way. The UK CANNOT GET HURRICANES! Simply due to sea surface temperatures and amount of shear at our latitudes it is impossible. So if you read that a hurricane is on the way then it isn't. If ex-Ophelia affects the UK it will be as an extra-tropical low and have the characteristics of a mid latitude low. Secondly, we still aren't 100% sure of the track, as how Ophelia interacts with the incoming upper trough is still uncertain. So please do the weather industry a big favour over the next few days and stick to met forecasts for this system only.
Right, rant over and here are the charts :-
Here she is, out in the Atlantic some 750 miles Southwest of the Azores. Over the next day or two very little happens, perhaps she may intensify slightly more but that's by the by.
The real change starts on Saturday thanks to the jet stream :-
You can see how the jet stretches down from the Azores to the UK and this is what picks up Ophelia and sends her our way. This is an upper trough which steers these types of systems.
The vast majority of the global models take Ophelia as a notable and deep extra tropical low across Ireland and Northern Ireland on Monday. This is the GFS ► :-
The ECMWF ► is a tad further East :-
Whilst the GEM is a little faster and merges Ophelia with another mid latitude low to the Northwest of Ireland :-
So, the confidence is moderate/high that ex-Ophelia will affect some part of Ireland/British Isles on Monday next week. The heaviest of the rain will always be on the Western flank of Ophelia which may well stay offshore of Ireland and Northern Ireland.
As for any further details? Still early days for the exact track and intensity, but we should have a better idea tomorrow and into the weekend. So keep up to date with this system if you are in Ireland or Southwest/Western England over the next day or two and get your information from people who have studied and been qualified in this subject and not people who just want your clicks.
METEOROLOGIST : MARSH |