Ophelia... Added : Saturday at 8:51 Lots of silly figures being bandied around this morning on the system, so let's have a bit of a reality check and see what the latest numerical models are suggesting.
This is the GFS ► take on the system at the moment :-
Some impressive satellite imagery too with Ophelia regaining her eye and surrounded by deep convection this morning. She is still a category two hurricane, but a big change in the next 24 hours as she becomes extratropical and start heading Northeast.
This is the reason :-
Ophelia becomes embedded within mid latitude Westerlies later today and hitches a lift Northeast towards Ireland.
There is still some uncertainty regarding how far East she manages to come, but as she becomes extratropical so her wind field will expand and you shouldn't get too hung up on where the exact centre of the system will be.
The GFS ► brings her just to the Southwest of Ireland by Monday afternoon with sustained winds of 50-60mph and gusts of 80-100mph for the very far Southwest of Ireland. This is the region which will experience the strongest of the winds. Granted, much of Southern Ireland will see very strong winds, but the core of the strongest will always be across the very far Southwestern tip of Ireland.
Arpege shows this up well. You can see gales across much of Southern Ireland, but it's the far Southwest which sees the narrow core of the strongest winds :-
Some impressive large waves will feature too, especially for the South coast of Ireland, but all interests along the Southwest coast, St Georges Channel and Irish Sea should be aware of the risk of large waves away from the main circulation of Ophelia :-
So, a pretty vicious system which is rather unusual in terms of not just intensity but also track and characteristics. Interests in Ireland and Western parts of England, Wales and Scotland should monitor Ophelia over the next day or two.
METEOROLOGIST : MARSH |